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Model Picks
14AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o239.5 Passing Yards (54%) Projection 257.94 (Over)
The Colts have the 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL this year, averaging 60.2 per game, while the Titans defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion Rate at 80.2%, and their cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones Score a Touchdown (Yes: 18%) Projection 0.25 (Yes)
The Colts have called the 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL this year with an average of 60.2 per game, while the Titans defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion Rate at 80.2% and their cornerbacks are ranked as the 2nd-worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Jonathan Taylor u89.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 72.31 (Under)
The model predicts a total of 125.0 plays in the game, the 3rd-lowest this week, with favorable conditions for passing and declining rushing efficiency for Jonathan Taylor, who averages 4.03 adjusted yards-per-carry this season compared to 5.05 last season.
AI Analysis
Carnell Tate o49.5 Receiving Yards (56%) Projection 53.51 (Over)
The Titans are a 7-point underdog this week, projected to pass on 59.9% of plays, with their offensive line ranked 3rd in efficiency, while the Colts pass defense allows 9.79 adjusted yards-per-target, the 5th-most in the league.
AI Analysis
Gunnar Helm o14.5 Receiving Yards (61%) Projection 23.26 (Over)
The Titans are a 7-point underdog this week, projected to pass on 59.9% of plays, benefiting from a favorable indoor setting and possessing the 3rd-best offensive line, while facing the 2nd-worst linebacker corps in coverage.
AI Analysis
Tony Pollard o49.5 Rushing Yards (56%) Projection 64.46 (Over)
Tony Pollard is projected to have 17.4 rush attempts this week, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs, and currently ranks in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts this year, averaging 52.0 adjusted yards per game, while the Colts run defense allows 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry, the 28th-lowest in the NFL, and their safeties rank as the 2nd-worst in run defense.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o9.5 Rushing Yards (43%) Projection 14.56 (Over)
The Colts, favored by 7 points, are expected to focus on rushing against the Titans, who have the 3rd-worst run defense in the NFL, while averaging 60.2 plays per game.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o49.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 63.95 (Over)
The Colts rank 9th in the NFL for plays called this year with an average of 60.2 per game, and Josh Downs has improved his air attack usage, projected to receive 7.3 targets in this week's game while averaging 69.0 air yards per game.
AI Analysis
Tony Pollard o52.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 64.47 (Over)
Tony Pollard is projected to have 17.4 rush attempts this week, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs, while he also ranks in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts this year with 64.7% of his offense's rushing workload and averages 52.0 adjusted yards per game; the Colts defense has allowed 4.97 adjusted yards per carry, the 28th-lowest in the NFL, while their safeties rank as the 2nd-worst in run defense.
AI Analysis
Jonathan Taylor o14.5 Receiving Yards (62%) Projection 19.24 (Over)
The Colts have called the 9th-largest average volume of plays in the NFL this year at 60.2 per game, with Jonathan Taylor running routes on 59.0% of dropbacks, projecting 3.3 targets and averaging 21.0 adjusted yards per game, ranking him well among running backs.
AI Analysis
Cam Ward o11.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 13.79 (Over)
The Colts run defense has allowed 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry, ranking 28th in the NFL, while their safeties have been ranked as the 2nd-worst in the league for run defense.
AI Analysis
Cam Ward o9.5 Rushing Yards (62%) Projection 13.88 (Over)
In 2023, the Colts' run defense allowed 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry, ranking 28th in the NFL, while their safeties ranked as the 2nd-worst in run defense.
AI Analysis
Jonathan Taylor u88.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 72.75 (Under)
The model predicts a total of 125.0 plays in the game, the 3rd-lowest this week, with favorable conditions for passing but declining rushing efficiency for Jonathan Taylor, who has an adjusted 4.03 yards-per-carry this season compared to 5.05 last season.
AI Analysis
Tony Pollard o8.5 Receiving Yards (51%) Projection 10.44 (Over)
The Titans are 7-point underdogs this week, projected to pass 59.9% of the time in a dome stadium, while the Colts defense has allowed an average of 51.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o6.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 14.55 (Over)
The Colts are favored by 7 points, indicating a heavier emphasis on rushing, while they average 60.2 plays per game, and the Titans' linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst in run defense.
AI Analysis
Jonathan Taylor o14.5 Receiving Yards (61%) Projection 19.24 (Over)
The Colts have called the 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL this year, averaging 60.2 per game, with Jonathan Taylor running routes on 59.0% of dropbacks, projected for 3.3 targets this week and averaging 18.0 adjusted yards per game, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o49.5 Receiving Yards (52%) Projection 63.74 (Over)
The Colts have the 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL this year at 60.2 per game, while Josh Downs has increased his route percentage to 90.3% and is projected to receive 7.3 targets, averaging 69.0 air yards per game.
AI Analysis
Tyler Warren u59.5 Receiving Yards (59%) Projection 53.44 (Under)
The Colts are favored by 7 points, leading to a game expected to have 125.4 plays called, with the Titans defense allowing the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards to tight ends and the fewest yards-after-the-catch.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o224.5 Passing Yards (61%) Projection 257.94 (Over)
The Colts have called the 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL this year, averaging 60.2 per game, and the Titans' defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion Rate at 80.5%, with their cornerbacks ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Jonathan Taylor o14.5 Receiving Yards (62%) Projection 19.17 (Over)
The Colts have called the 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL this year with an average of 60.2 per game, while Jonathan Taylor, who runs routes on 59.0% of dropbacks, is projected for 3.3 targets this week, ranking him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o4.5 Receptions Made (48%) Projection 5.07 (Over)
The Colts have the 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL this year with an average of 60.2 per game, while Josh Downs has a 90.3% Route% and is projected to receive 7.3 targets in this week's game, averaging 3.4 adjusted receptions per game.
AI Analysis
Cam Ward o9.5 Rushing Yards (61%) Projection 13.92 (Over)
The Colts run defense has allowed 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry this season, ranking as the 28th lowest in the NFL, and their safeties have been one of the most exploitable, ranking 3rd worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Cam Ward o9.5 Rushing Yards (60%) Projection 13.93 (Over)
In 2023, the Colts run defense allowed 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry, ranking 28th in the NFL, while their safeties rank as the 3rd-worst in the league in run defense.
AI Analysis
Carnell Tate o49.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 53.51 (Over)
The Titans are a 7-point underdog this week with projections indicating they will pass on 60.0% of their plays, the 7th-highest rate, while playing in a dome against the Colts, whose pass defense is allowing 9.78 adjusted yards-per-target.
AI Analysis
Tyler Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: 39%)
The Titans have the lowest-scoring offense in football, while the Colts are expected to be favored this week; Tyler Warren scored a one-yard TD last week, led the team with nine targets, and has a 78% ROI on TD bets, having scored in three of five games.
AI Analysis
Carnell Tate o49.5 Receiving Yards (59%) Projection 53.51 (Over)
The Titans are 7-point underdogs this week, projected to pass on 60.0% of plays due to favorable conditions in a dome and strong offensive line performance, while the Colts' pass defense has struggled against wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o4.5 Receptions Made (44%) Projection 5.07 (Over)
The Colts rank 9th in the NFL for play volume with an average of 60.2 plays per game this season, while Josh Downs has a 90.3% Route% and is projected for 7.3 targets, ranking in the 82nd percentile for WRs.
AI Analysis
Tony Pollard o8.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 10.46 (Over)
The Titans are 7-point underdogs this week with projections indicating they will pass on 60.0% of their plays, while Tony Pollard ranks in the 85th percentile for air yards among running backs, and the Colts' defense has allowed the highest adjusted receiving yards to opposing RBs.
AI Analysis
Jonathan Taylor o14.5 Receiving Yards (59%) Projection 19.24 (Over)
The Colts have the 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL this year, averaging 60.2 per game, while Jonathan Taylor has run routes on 59.0% of his team's dropbacks, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs and projected to average 3.3 targets in this week's contest.
AI Analysis
Gunnar Helm o17.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 23.06 (Over)
The Titans are a 7-point underdog this week, projected to pass on 60.0% of their plays in a dome environment, supported by the 3rd-best offensive line and facing the 2nd-worst linebackers in covering receivers.
AI Analysis
Jonathan Taylor u20.5 Rushing Attempts (56%) Projection 16.68 (Under)
The model predicts a total of 125.5 plays for the game, which ranks as the 4th-lowest this week, with favorable passing conditions in a dome likely benefiting air attacks.
AI Analysis
Cam Ward o9.5 Rushing Yards (61%) Projection 13.92 (Over)
In 2023, the Colts run defense allowed 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry, ranking 28th in the NFL, while their safeties ranked 3rd-worst in run defense.
AI Analysis
Tyler Warren o50.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 53.34 (Over)
The Colts have the 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL this year, averaging 60.2 plays per game, while the Titans' defensive ends are ranked 3rd-worst in rushing the passer.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o234.5 Passing Yards (52%) Projection 257.57 (Over)
The Colts have called the 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL this year at an average of 60.2 per game, while the Titans' defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion Rate in football at 80.5%, and their cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o49.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 63.95 (Over)
The Colts have the 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL this year with an average of 60.2 per game, and Josh Downs has improved his Route% from 66.7% last season to 90.3% this season, with projections showing he will receive 7.3 targets, placing him in the 83rd percentile for WRs.
AI Analysis
Tony Pollard o51.5 Rushing Yards (53%)
Tony Pollard is likely to increase his workload with Tyjae Spears injured, as he has recorded at least 14 carries in each of his last four games against a weak Colts run defense, with projections estimating Pollard could receive 17 carries for over 70 rushing yards.
AI Analysis
Tony Pollard o59.5 Rushing Yards (45%)
Pollard's rushing prop is playable up to 64+ yards, as Indianapolis ranks last in rushing EPA allowed and run-stop win rate, and a competitive game script against Tennessee should keep him involved.
AI Analysis
Carnell Tate Score a Touchdown (Yes: 24%)
Tate's anytime touchdown is viable up to 30%, with 37 targets and no receiving scores, facing a struggling Indianapolis secondary.
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