NFL picks
Minnesota
Vikings · Away
New Orleans
Saints · Home
Model Picks
11AI Analysis
Kyler Murray o212.5 Passing Yards (55%) Projection 240.53 (Over)
The game is projected to have 130.6 offensive plays, the third-most this week, played in a dome, benefiting from no wind and enhanced passing effectiveness, while the Minnesota offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in quarterback protection.
AI Analysis
Tyler Shough o237.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 263.54 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints are projected to have a 61.5% pass rate, be the 5th-most pass-heavy team this week, and are anticipated to run 130.6 offensive plays, while averaging 50.8 plays per game this year, with their offensive line ranking 10th in the NFL.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray o17.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 25.66 (Over)
The Vikings are ranked 7th in the NFL for run rate at 43.1%, with an expected 130.6 offensive plays in their upcoming game, while Kyler Murray is projected to have a 17.8% carry share compared to his 8.6% this season, as the opposing team averages 164 adjusted rushing yards per game against the Saints defense.
AI Analysis
Juwan Johnson o42.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 50.74 (Over)
The Saints are projected to have a 61.5% pass rate, ranking them as the 5th-most pass-heavy team this week, in a game anticipated to have 130.6 offensive plays, while they have averaged only 50.8 plays per game this season, and Juwan Johnson has improved his adjusted yards per game from 41.0 to 60.0.
AI Analysis
Chris Olave Score a Touchdown (Yes: 34%) Projection 0.49 (Yes)
The New Orleans Saints are projected to have a 61.5% pass rate this week, ranking 5th in pass attempts and 7th in red zone pass efficiency, with an anticipated 130.6 total offensive plays in a dome environment.
AI Analysis
Juwan Johnson o39.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 50.74 (Over)
The Saints are projected to have a 61.5% pass rate, the 5th-most pass-heavy team this week, in a game expected to feature 130.6 offensive plays, while Johnson has improved his receiving proficiency with 60.0 adjusted yards per game this season.
AI Analysis
Juwan Johnson o39.5 Receiving Yards (56%) Projection 50.74 (Over)
The Saints are projected to have a 61.5% pass rate this week, ranking as the 5th-most pass-heavy team, with an anticipated 130.6 offensive plays in the game, while Juwan Johnson has improved his adjusted yards per game to 60.0 from 41.0 last season.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray o224.5 Passing Yards (47%) Projection 240.53 (Over)
The contest is projected to have 130.6 offensive plays, ranking 3rd among all games this week, played in a dome that enhances passing effectiveness and touchdown potential, while Minnesota's offensive line is rated 8th in quarterback protection.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray o17.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 25.66 (Over)
The Vikings are the 7th-most run-oriented team in the NFL this year with a 43.1% run rate, and projections estimate 130.6 offensive plays for their upcoming contest, ranking 3rd among this week's games; Kyler Murray, who averages 3.9 carries per game, is expected to have a higher carry share of 17.8% in this game compared to 8.6% this season, while the opposing team has the highest adjusted rushing yards against the Saints defense at 164 yards per game.
AI Analysis
Juwan Johnson o39.5 Receiving Yards (57%) Projection 50.74 (Over)
The Saints are projected to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team this week with a 61.5% pass rate, in a game expected to have 130.6 offensive plays, while averaging 50.8 plays per game this season, in a dome environment that enhances passing efficiency, and Juwan Johnson's adjusted yards per game have improved from 41.0 to 60.0.
AI Analysis
Tyler Shough u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (45%) Projection 0.45 (Under)
Minnesota's cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best in the league this year in covering receivers, according to ProphetX.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray o19.5 Rushing Yards (50%) Projection 25.66 (Over)
The Vikings are the 7th-most run-focused NFL team in 2023 with a 43.1% run rate, and projections for their upcoming game estimate 130.6 offensive plays, the 3rd-most this week; Kyler Murray, who averages 3.9 carries per game and ranks in the 81st percentile for running workload among quarterbacks, is expected to have a 17.8% carry share in this contest, compared to 8.6% earlier this season, while the opposing team has the highest NFL rushing yard average at 164 yards per game against the Saints defense.
AI Analysis
Justin Jefferson Score a Touchdown (Yes: 41%) Projection 0.53 (Yes)
The Vikings are projected to have the 2nd-highest pass rate in the red zone at 63.0% and the game is expected to feature 130.6 offensive plays, the 3rd-most this week, with favorable conditions for passing in a dome; Justin Jefferson averages 81.0 air yards per game (87th percentile) and has a 72.8 WOPR, ranking in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Justin Jefferson Score a Touchdown (Yes: 37%) Projection 0.53 (Yes)
The Vikings are projected to have a 63.0% red zone pass rate, ranking as the 2nd-most pass-focused offense, with an expected 130.6 offensive plays in a dome, while Justin Jefferson averages 81.0 air yards per game and holds a 72.8 WOPR, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Aaron Jones Sr. o19.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 23.48 (Over)
The game is projected to have 130.6 offensive plays, the 3rd-most this week, in a dome, with Aaron Jones expected to have 5.1 targets in the 93rd percentile for RBs, while the Minnesota offensive line ranks 8th in quarterback protection.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray o212.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 240.53 (Over)
The game is projected to have 130.6 offensive plays, the 3rd-most this week, played in a dome which enhances passing effectiveness, while the Minnesota offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in quarterback protection.
AI Analysis
Chris Olave Score a Touchdown (Yes: 33%) Projection 0.49 (Yes)
The Saints are projected to have a 61.5% pass rate this week, ranking as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense near the end zone with a 62.6% red zone pass rate, while the game is expected to see 130.6 offensive plays, the 3rd-highest this week, despite the Saints averaging only 50.8 plays per game.
AI Analysis
T.J. Hockenson Score a Touchdown (Yes: 24%)
T.J. Hockenson, who had 13 targets last week, is set to play against the Saints, a team allowing the most points per game, with his recent performance at 4.3x compared to a fair price of 3.5x.
AI Analysis
Aaron Jones Sr. Score a Touchdown (Yes: 51%)
Jones' anytime TD is viable up to 55%, as he is Minnesota's primary back and New Orleans has allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs.
AI Analysis
T.J. Hockenson o39.5 Receiving Yards (52%)
Hockenson faces a favorable matchup against a Saints defense that has permitted every starting tight end to achieve 47 or more receiving yards, and might be further weakened if MLB Kaden Ellis is out.
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