NFL picks
Cleveland
Browns · Away
New York
Jets · Home
Model Picks
17AI Analysis
Geno Smith o10.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 15.81 (Over)
The predictive model forecasts the New York Jets to have a run rate of 45.3%, making them the 7th-most run-centric team this week.
AI Analysis
Braelon Allen Score a Touchdown (Yes: 53%) Projection 0.74 (Yes)
The Cleveland Browns defense leads the league in pass attempts against, allowing opposing QBs 29.5 attempts per game, while the Jets have the 6th-best offensive line, and the Browns have allowed the fewest rushing TDs at 0.00 per game, but their safeties rank as the 2nd-worst in covering receivers.
AI Analysis
Geno Smith u206.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 196.89 (Under)
The model predicts the Jets to pass on 54.7% of their chances, run 62.5 offensive plays (9th-fewest), and Geno Smith to throw 31.5 passes (8th-fewest), while Cleveland Browns cornerbacks are projected as the 2nd-best in covering receivers this season.
AI Analysis
Deshaun Watson o29.5 Rushing Yards (51%) Projection 31.49 (Over)
Deshaun Watson is projected to have 7.9 rush attempts in the upcoming game, leading all QBs, while he accounts for 29.5% of his team's rush attempts this season, and the Jets' run defense ranks among the worst in the NFL, allowing 126.0 adjusted rushing yards per game and featuring the 2nd-worst linebackers.
AI Analysis
Geno Smith o10.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 16.08 (Over)
The predictive model forecasts the New York Jets as the 7th-most run-centric team this week with a 45.3% run rate.
AI Analysis
KC Concepcion Jr. o37.5 Receiving Yards (52%) Projection 48.23 (Over)
The Cleveland offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, positively impacting all passing offense statistics.
AI Analysis
Garrett Wilson u6.5 Receptions Made (57%) Projection 5.13 (Under)
The model predicts the Jets will pass 54.7% of the time, ranking 7th-lowest this week, and expects them to execute 62.5 offensive plays, the 9th-fewest, while the Browns' cornerbacks are projected as the 2nd-best in covering receivers.
AI Analysis
Deshaun Watson u203.5 Passing Yards (55%) Projection 190.33 (Under)
The Browns are projected to have the 10th-least pass-centric offense this week with a 55.0% pass rate, expecting only 125.3 total offensive plays, the 5th-fewest of the week, with Deshaun Watson attempting 30.9 passes, the 6th-fewest among quarterbacks, while facing a Jets defense that has allowed just 139.0 adjusted passing yards per game, the 3rd-best in the league.
AI Analysis
Braelon Allen o69.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 75.24 (Over)
The predictive model forecasts the New York Jets as the 7th-most run-centric team this week, with a run rate of 45.3%.
AI Analysis
Braelon Allen o69.5 Rushing Yards (52%) Projection 75.24 (Over)
The predictive model forecasts the New York Jets will be the 7th-most run-centric team this week with a 45.3% run rate.
AI Analysis
KC Concepcion Jr. o39.5 Receiving Yards (51%) Projection 48.37 (Over)
The Cleveland offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL for pass protection in 2023, positively impacting all passing offense statistics.
AI Analysis
Braelon Allen Score a Touchdown (Yes: 51%) Projection 0.74 (Yes)
The Cleveland Browns defense has allowed the 5th-most pass attempts per game at 29.5, while the Jets' offensive line ranks 6th in the league for pass protection, and opposing teams have rushed for the fewest touchdowns (0.00 per game) against the Browns, whose safeties are projected as the 2nd-worst in covering receivers.
AI Analysis
Harold Fannin Jr. o35.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 43.75 (Over)
The Cleveland offensive line ranks 4th in the NFL for pass protection this year, while the Jets pass defense has the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% against TEs at 76.9% since last season, and their linebackers are projected as the 2nd-worst unit for pass rush this year.
AI Analysis
Braelon Allen Score a Touchdown (Yes: 50%) Projection 0.74 (Yes)
The Cleveland Browns have allowed opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league, while the Jets' offensive line ranks as the 6th-best, and the Browns' defense has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns this season, with their safeties projected as the 2nd-worst in covering receivers.
AI Analysis
Geno Smith u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (50%) Projection 0.45 (Under)
The model estimates the Jets will pass 55.5% of the time, ranking 9th-lowest in the league, as they are the 2nd-slowest paced team; Geno Smith is projected to attempt 32.1 passes, the 7th-fewest among QBs, and has a low interception rate of 0.04 per game, while Cleveland's defense averages 1.03 interceptions per game, ranking 5th-best.
AI Analysis
Deshaun Watson Score a Touchdown (Yes: 21%) Projection 0.29 (Yes)
The Cleveland Browns have a 61.6% pass completion rate near the goal line, ranking as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL, with their offensive line being the 4th-best in pass protection, while quarterback Deshaun Watson averages 0.00 rushing touchdowns per game.
AI Analysis
Quinshon Judkins o59.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 63.71 (Over)
The Jets' run defense has allowed 126.0 adjusted rushing yards per game, ranking 6th-worst in the NFL, while their linebackers rank 2nd-worst in run defense.
AI Analysis
Braelon Allen o69.5 Rushing Yards (51%) Projection 72.68 (Over)
The predictive model forecasts the New York Jets to be the 9th-most run-centric team this week with a 44.5% run rate.
AI Analysis
Braelon Allen Score a Touchdown (Yes: 49%) Projection 0.74 (Yes)
The Cleveland Browns defense has allowed the 3rd-most quarterback pass attempts in the league at 41.0 per game, while the Jets' offensive line is rated as the 6th-best, and opposing teams have scored the fewest rushing touchdowns (0.00 per game) against the Browns, whose safeties are projected as the 2nd-worst in covering receivers.
AI Analysis
Deshaun Watson o24.5 Rushing Yards (57%) Projection 32.43 (Over)
Deshaun Watson is projected to have 7.5 rush attempts in his upcoming game, ranking second among QBs, as he accounts for 26.7% of his team's rush attempts in a matchup against the Jets, who allow 126.0 adjusted rushing yards per game and have the second-worst LB run defense in the NFL.
AI Analysis
Quinshon Judkins o59.5 Rushing Yards (52%) Projection 63.71 (Over)
In 2023, the Jets have allowed 126.0 adjusted rushing yards per game, ranking 8th-worst in the NFL, with their linebackers ranked 2nd-worst in run defense.
AI Analysis
Quinshon Judkins Score a Touchdown (Yes: 42%)
Quinshon Judkins is currently at 39% for expected touchdowns, with a fair price set at 46%, and he has had a significant role in the offense, handling 83% of running back opportunities and all nine red-zone carries for Cleveland this season.
AI Analysis
Harold Fannin Jr. Score a Touchdown (Yes: 31%)
Harold Fannin Jr. leads Cleveland with three touchdowns, converting all three red-zone targets, while holding a 20% target share and a significant role near the goal line.
AI Analysis
Denzel Boston o48.5 Receiving Yards (53%)
Denzel Boston has achieved over 55% in three of four games, averaging 21.8 yards per reception with a 19% target share and 5.5 targets per game.
See Every Model's Pick
Unlock the full pick breakdown, win-rates, and real-time alerts for every future game.