NFL picks
Atlanta
Falcons · Away
New Orleans
Saints · Home
Model Picks
14AI Analysis
Alvin Kamara o39.5 Rushing Yards (50%) Projection 44.67 (Over)
The model predicts the game will have the highest number of plays this week at 136.1, factoring in team traits and game dynamics, while the New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since last season with an average of 60.6 per game.
AI Analysis
Drake London Score a Touchdown (Yes: 41%) Projection 0.52 (Yes)
The game is projected to have 136.1 offensive plays, benefiting passing offenses due to favorable conditions, while Drake London is expected to increase his red zone target share to 29.3% and has amassed 86.0 air yards per game, ranking in the 89th percentile among wide receivers, with a Weighted Opportunity Rating that places him in the 97th percentile.
AI Analysis
Drake London o78.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 84.56 (Over)
This game is projected to have 136.2 offensive plays, with Drake London expected to receive 10.2 targets, representing a 30.0% target share, and averaging 68.0 adjusted yards per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Michael Penix Jr. o224.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 236.75 (Over)
The game is projected to have 136.1 offensive plays, the highest of the week, with favorable conditions for passing offenses due to no wind, while the Atlanta Falcons have the 7th-best offensive line since last season.
AI Analysis
Bijan Robinson u85.5 Rushing Yards (54%) Projection 75.66 (Under)
Both teams' passing offenses are likely to thrive due to the calm indoor conditions, while ground volume may decrease.
AI Analysis
Juwan Johnson o39.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 43.85 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints are projected to pass on 59.5% of their downs this week, ranking 9th among all teams, with the game expected to see 136.2 plays, the highest this week, and Juwan Johnson averaging 44.0 adjusted yards per game, placing him in the 92nd percentile.
AI Analysis
Alvin Kamara o16.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 20.94 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints, a pass-heavy NFL team with a 61.6% passing rate, are projected to have the highest number of plays this week at 136.1, with Alvin Kamara expected to receive an average of 4.7 targets, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
AI Analysis
Alvin Kamara o16.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 20.96 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL with a 61.6% passing rate, are projected to participate in the highest number of plays this week at 136.1, and since last season, they have averaged 60.6 plays per game.
AI Analysis
Michael Penix Jr. o30.5 Passing Attempts (56%) Projection 33.85 (Over)
The game is projected to have 136.2 offensive plays, the highest this week, with passing offenses benefiting from favorable indoor conditions.
AI Analysis
Tyler Shough Score a Touchdown (Yes: 26%) Projection 0.35 (Yes)
The Saints are the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL with a 62.6% red zone pass rate, the game is projected for 136.1 plays, the Saints average 60.6 plays per game since last season, it will be played in a dome enhancing passing conditions, and the Falcons' run defense allows only 0.60 TDs on the ground per game.
AI Analysis
Alvin Kamara o36.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 44.74 (Over)
The model predicts this game will have the highest number of plays this week at 136.2, with the New Orleans Saints averaging 60.6 plays per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Drake London o5.5 Receptions Made (48%) Projection 6.04 (Over)
This game is projected to have 136.1 offensive plays, benefiting passing offenses due to favorable weather conditions, with Drake London expected to receive 10.2 targets and a 30.0% projected target share, surpassing his current season rate of 24.6%, while averaging 4.8 adjusted catches per game, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Juwan Johnson o40.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 44.16 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints, ranked 7th in pass frequency in the NFL with a 61.6% completion rate this year, are projected to play the highest number of total plays this week at 136.1, averaging 60.6 plays per game since last season, while Juwan Johnson is one of the top pass-catching tight ends with 44.0 adjusted yards per game at the 92nd percentile.
AI Analysis
Drake London o79.5 Receiving Yards (51%) Projection 85.15 (Over)
The game is projected to have 136.1 offensive plays, benefiting the passing offenses due to favorable weather conditions, with Drake London expected to receive 10.2 targets and a 30.0% target share, significantly higher than his average this season.
AI Analysis
Tyler Shough o254.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 261.52 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints, the 7th-most pass-heavy NFL team with a 61.6% passing rate, are projected to participate in the game with the highest expected plays this week at 136.1, while their defense has allowed an average of 0.81 yards-after-the-catch since last season, ranking 8th in the league.
AI Analysis
Michael Penix Jr. o224.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 236.79 (Over)
The game is projected to have 136.2 offensive plays, benefiting the passing offenses of both teams due to favorable conditions, while the Atlanta Falcons' offensive line ranks 7th in the league for pocket protection.
AI Analysis
Tyler Shough o16.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 23.7 (Over)
The game is projected to have the highest number of plays this week at 136.2, with the New Orleans Saints averaging 60.6 plays per game, ranking third in the league since last season.
AI Analysis
Michael Penix Jr. o5.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 7.47 (Over)
The predictive model indicates that the Atlanta Falcons are expected to have a 44.6% run rate, making them the 3rd-most run-centric offense, while the New Orleans defensive ends have been rated as the worst in stopping the run since last season.
AI Analysis
Bijan Robinson u39.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 34.68 (Under)
The Falcons rank as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL with a 55.4% context-neutralized rate, while opposing teams have averaged only 29.4 pass attempts per game against the Saints, who allow just 22.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs and have the 5th-best linebackers for covering pass-catchers since last season.
AI Analysis
Kyle Pitts Sr. o27.5 Receiving Yards (59%) Projection 37.29 (Over)
The game is projected to have 136.1 offensive plays, with both teams benefiting from favorable indoor conditions, and Kyle Pitts is expected to receive 5.2 targets with a 15.5% projected Target Share, significantly higher than his season average.
AI Analysis
Tyler Shough o249.5 Passing Yards (58%) Projection 261.52 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints are projected to pass on 59.5% of their downs, ranking 9th highest this week, with the game expected to have the most plays at 136.2, and the Saints averaging 60.6 plays per game since last season, while the Falcons defense has allowed an average of 0.81 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 8th in the league.
AI Analysis
Michael Penix Jr. o224.5 Passing Yards (54%) Projection 236.79 (Over)
The game is projected to feature 136.1 offensive plays, the highest this week, with favorable passing conditions in a dome and the Atlanta Falcons' offensive line ranking 7th in the league for pocket protection.
AI Analysis
Bijan Robinson u19.5 Rushing Attempts (51%) Projection 17.09 (Under)
The passing offenses of both teams will benefit from the calm conditions inside the dome, although ground volume may decrease, with the current line at 51% at Novig.
AI Analysis
Tyler Shough o249.5 Passing Yards (57%) Projection 261.52 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints are projected to pass on 59.5% of their downs in their upcoming game, which is the 9th-highest rate this week, with an expected total of 136.2 plays, and they have averaged 60.6 plays per game since last season, while the Falcons defense allows an average of 0.81 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 8th in the league.
AI Analysis
Michael Penix Jr. o5.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 7.47 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to have the 3rd-highest run rate in the NFL at 44.6%, with the game expected to feature 136.2 offensive plays, while New Orleans's defensive ends have been the least effective against the run since last season.
AI Analysis
Alvin Kamara o14.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 20.96 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints are projected to pass on 59.5% of their downs this week, the 9th-highest rate, with the game expected to have the highest number of plays at 136.2, while Alvin Kamara is forecasted to receive an average of 4.7 targets, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
AI Analysis
Alvin Kamara o14.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 20.82 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints are projected to pass on 59.5% of their downs, ranking 9th in the league, with the game expected to have the highest number of plays this week at 136.2, and Alvin Kamara is projected to receive an average of 4.7 targets, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
AI Analysis
Alvin Kamara o39.5 Rushing Yards (50%) Projection 47.13 (Over)
This game is projected to have the highest number of plays this week at 136.2, influenced by team traits and dynamics, with the New Orleans Saints having called the 3rd-most plays in the league since last season at an average of 60.6 per game.
AI Analysis
Kyle Pitts Sr. o24.5 Receiving Yards (59%) Projection 35.86 (Over)
The game is projected to have 136.2 offensive plays, with Kyle Pitts expected to receive 5.2 targets and a 15.0% target share, significantly higher than his 8.7% average this year, while posting 46.0 air yards per game, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
AI Analysis
Juwan Johnson o39.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 43.85 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints are projected to pass on 59.5% of their downs and the game is expected to have the highest number of plays this week at 136.2, with the Saints averaging 60.6 plays per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Juwan Johnson Score a Touchdown (Yes: 30%)
Juwan Johnson caught all eight of his targets and scored twice, securing 20% of the targets in a game with over 40 dropbacks, while Travis Etienne's injury may increase passing volume, as Johnson has six red-zone targets and ranks second in tight end targets inside the 20.
AI Analysis
Chris Olave Score a Touchdown (Yes: 46%)
Chris Olave has a 44% chance to score a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons, who are missing top cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr.
AI Analysis
Drake London o79.5 Receiving Yards (53%)
Michael Penix and Drake London have developed strong chemistry, with London recording nine catches for 194 yards in their last game, averaging 120 receiving yards per game with Penix, and a projected total of 86 yards for the upcoming matchup.
AI Analysis
Tyler Shough o0.5 Interceptions Thrown (44%)
Shough has completed nearly 64% of his throws with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, facing a solid Falcons pass defense while dealing with a struggling offensive line.
AI Analysis
Kyle Pitts Sr. o2.5 Receptions Made (55%)
Falcons tight end has two receptions on six targets for 20 yards this season, and New Orleans has allowed the third most receptions and yards to tight ends, with injuries in their linebacker corps, leading to a projected average of 3.6 catches for Pitts in Week 4.
See Every Model's Pick
Unlock the full pick breakdown, win-rates, and real-time alerts for every future game.