NFL picks
Miami
Dolphins · Away
Minnesota
Vikings · Home
Model Picks
13AI Analysis
Malik Willis o174.5 Passing Yards (52%) Projection 180.69 (Over)
The Dolphins are 11-point underdogs in this game, suggesting a likely focus on passing due to favorable indoor conditions.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray o19.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 25.79 (Over)
The Minnesota Vikings are an 11-point favorite this week, projected to have the 3rd-most run-heavy offense with a 46.5% run rate, while Kyler Murray is expected to have 5.4 carries, and the Miami Dolphins' run defense has allowed 139.0 adjusted rushing yards per game, ranking 4th-worst in the NFL since last season.
AI Analysis
Malik Washington o35.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 42.37 (Over)
The Dolphins are an 11-point underdog, suggesting a focus on passing due to favorable indoor conditions, while the Vikings' pass defense has allowed an average of 0.86 yards-after-the-catch, ranking second worst in the NFL since last season.
AI Analysis
Greg Dulcich o27.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 33.47 (Over)
The Dolphins are 11-point underdogs in the game, which may lead to a high-volume passing game due to favorable weather conditions, and Greg Dulcich is projected to have 4.8 targets, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends with significant participation and air yards.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray Score a Touchdown (Yes: 28%) Projection 0.28 (Yes)
The Minnesota Vikings are currently the 5th-most pass-centric team near the goal line, playing in a favorable dome environment, while the Miami Dolphins have allowed a high completion rate and 1.80 passing touchdowns per game, indicating vulnerabilities in their defense.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Wright o22.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 46.67 (Over)
The Dolphins have the 2nd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL with 44.7% in a neutral context, according to a projection model, and 53% at ProphetX.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray o199.5 Passing Yards (59%) Projection 227.32 (Over)
The game will take place in a dome, leading to optimal passing conditions, while the Dolphins defense has the 2nd-highest opposing completion rate and the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target allowed since last season, with their safeties ranking 4th-worst in defending receivers.
AI Analysis
Malik Willis o28.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 34.67 (Over)
The Miami Dolphins rank as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL at 44.7%, while predictive models estimate Malik Willis will have 6.4 rush attempts in this game, ranking 6th among QBs, and he has increased his carry share from 15.0% to 20.3% this year, averaging 25.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Malik Willis o169.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 180.69 (Over)
The Dolphins are 11-point underdogs in this game, suggesting a heavy passing strategy due to favorable weather conditions in the dome.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray o224.5 Passing Yards (45%) Projection 227.32 (Over)
The game will take place in a dome, contributing to zero wind conditions, a higher pass volume, greater touchdown potential, and improved passing efficiency, while the Dolphins defense has allowed a 75.3% adjusted completion rate and ranks poorly in adjusted yards-per-target and pass defense against receivers.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Wright o23.5 Rushing Yards (56%) Projection 46.67 (Over)
The Dolphins are currently the 2nd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL, with a neutral context run rate of 44.7%.
AI Analysis
Greg Dulcich o27.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 33.47 (Over)
The Dolphins are 11-point underdogs, suggesting a high passing strategy, while Greg Dulcich has a 55.2% Route Participation since last season and is projected for 4.8 targets this week, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray Score a Touchdown (Yes: 23%) Projection 0.28 (Yes)
The Minnesota Vikings are the 5th-most pass-centric team near the goal line at 61.6%, with the game being played in a dome, while the Miami Dolphins defense has allowed 75.3% adjusted completion rate and 1.80 passing touchdowns per game, ranking as the 4th-worst in defending receivers since last season.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Wright o4.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 7.74 (Over)
The Dolphins are 11-point underdogs in the game, which may result in a high volume passing game due to favorable indoor conditions, while Minnesota's secondary has been vulnerable to pass-catchers since last season.
AI Analysis
Malik Washington o35.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 42.37 (Over)
The Dolphins are an 11-point underdog, which may result in a high-volume passing game, benefitting from favorable indoor conditions, while the Vikings' pass defense has struggled against receivers in space, allowing an average of 0.86 yards-after-the-catch, the second-most in the NFL.
AI Analysis
Malik Willis o29.5 Rushing Yards (52%) Projection 34.67 (Over)
The Dolphins are currently the 2nd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL at 44.7%, while Malik Willis is projected to average 6.4 rush attempts per game, ranking 6th among all quarterbacks, and has a 20.3% carry share this year compared to 15.0% last year, totaling 25.0 adjusted rushing yards per game.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray o207.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 227.32 (Over)
The game will be played in a dome, leading to zero wind and favorable passing conditions, while the Dolphins defense has allowed the second-highest completion rate against them (75.3%) and the seventh-most adjusted yards-per-target (8.03) since last season, with their safeties ranking as the fourth-worst in defending receivers.
AI Analysis
Kyler Murray o19.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 25.79 (Over)
The Minnesota Vikings are 11-point favorites this week and are projected to have a 46.5% run rate, while Kyler Murray is expected to have the 7th-most carries among quarterbacks with 5.4, as the Miami Dolphins' run defense has allowed 139.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Wright o24.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 46.67 (Over)
The Dolphins are currently the 2nd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL, with a 44.7% run rate in neutral game situations, according to a projection model.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Wright o4.5 Receiving Yards (57%) Projection 8.3 (Over)
The Dolphins are an 11-point underdog in this game, suggesting a likely high-passing game script, with both teams benefiting from favorable indoor weather conditions, while Minnesota's pass defense has been the worst in the NFL since last season.
AI Analysis
Aaron Jones Sr. o14.5 Receiving Yards (63%) Projection 20.75 (Over)
The game will take place in a dome, which enhances passing conditions, and Aaron Jones is projected to have significant targets as the Dolphins defense ranks poorly against receiving backs.
AI Analysis
Malik Willis o174.5 Passing Yards (51%) Projection 180.69 (Over)
The Dolphins are 11-point underdogs in this game, suggesting a potential for a high-volume passing game due to favorable indoor weather conditions.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Wright o7.5 Rushing Attempts (49%) Projection 9.96 (Over)
The Dolphins currently have the 2nd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL with a neutral context run rate of 44.7%.
AI Analysis
Tai Felton Score a Touchdown (Yes: 12%)
THE BLITZ offers a fair price of 6x, and if Justin Jefferson is inactive, Tai Felton may become the WR3 after taking 90% of the snaps with two targets on 19 routes, while the Dolphins will be less competitive without De'Von Achane.
AI Analysis
Malik Washington o3.5 Receptions Made (59%)
Malik Washington leads Miami with 12 receptions and an average of 7.66 targets per game, having surpassed four catches in consecutive games, while Minnesota's defense shows vulnerability against passing plays.
AI Analysis
Jordan Addison Score a Touchdown (Yes: 44%)
Jordan Addison may take on a larger role if Justin Jefferson is out, as he is currently one target behind Jefferson and recorded five catches for 90 yards and a touchdown last week, showcasing his potential as a scoring option against Miami.
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