Model Picks
14AI Analysis
C.J. Stroud o244.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 282.88 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities this week, ranking 7th among all teams, with the game expected to have the 3rd-highest play volume at 132.5 plays, while the Texans have averaged 61.0 plays per game since last season and will play in a dome, which enhances passing efficiency and touchdown potential.
AI Analysis
C.J. Stroud o11.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 19.13 (Over)
The model predicts this game will have the 3rd-highest volume of plays this week at 132.7, with the Houston Texans averaging 61.0 plays per game, while the Cowboys defense ranks 4th-worst against the run, allowing 5.38 adjusted yards-per-carry.
AI Analysis
David Montgomery o10.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 16.94 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities, ranking 7th among all teams this week, while the game is expected to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays at 132.5; the Texans have averaged 61.0 plays per game since last season, David Montgomery has improved his Adjusted Catch% to 100.0%, and the Cowboys defense has allowed the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs at 41.0.
AI Analysis
David Montgomery o44.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 54.39 (Over)
The model anticipates this game will have 132.5 plays, ranking third for the week, with the Houston Texans averaging 61.0 plays per game since last season, while David Montgomery is projected for 13.7 rush attempts, placing him in the 77th percentile among running backs, and he has a 52.1% carry share this season, compared to 35.1% last season, against a Cowboys defense allowing 5.38 adjusted yards-per-carry.
AI Analysis
Dak Prescott o9.5 Rushing Yards (54%) Projection 17.8 (Over)
The contest is predicted to have 132.5 offensive plays run, the 3rd-most this week, with the Dallas Cowboys averaging 59.8 plays per game since last season and Dak Prescott increasing his rush attempts from 8.8% to 14.5% this season.
AI Analysis
Nico Collins o72.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 84.16 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities this week, ranking 6th among all teams, with the game expected to have 132.7 total plays, and Houston averaging 61.0 plays per game since last season, while facing a Cowboys pass defense that has the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% against wideouts at 69.6%.
AI Analysis
Jake Ferguson o24.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 31.02 (Over)
The projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 62.6% of their opportunities, the 2nd-highest rate this week, with an anticipated total of 132.7 offensive plays in the game, the 3rd-most for the week, while the Cowboys have averaged 59.8 plays per game since last season, ranking 5th in the league.
AI Analysis
Javonte Williams u15.5 Rushing Attempts (51%) Projection 14.63 (Under)
The predictive model estimates that the Dallas Cowboys will run the ball on 37.5% of their plays, the 2nd-lowest rate this week, while Houston's defensive ends are projected as the 2nd-best in run defense since last season.
AI Analysis
CeeDee Lamb u76.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 74.45 (Under)
The Dallas Cowboys' offensive line is ranked as the 3rd-worst in the league for pass protection since the start of last season, while the Houston Texans have the lowest Adjusted Completion Percentage against wide receivers at 56.8% and the 2nd-fewest adjusted yards-per-target at 7.39 since the same period.
AI Analysis
Dak Prescott u273.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 261.48 (Under)
The Dallas Cowboys' offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league in protecting the passer since the start of last season, while the Houston Texans defense has allowed a 65.2% Adjusted Completion Rate and given up 6.95 adjusted yards-per-target, ranking 2nd-best in the NFL.
AI Analysis
C.J. Stroud o249.5 Passing Yards (51%) Projection 282.88 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities this week, ranking 6th among all teams, with the game expected to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays at 132.7, while Houston has the 2nd-most plays called in the league since last season at 61.0 per game, and the game will take place in a dome with optimal passing conditions against a Cowboys defense allowing a 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs.
AI Analysis
Jake Ferguson o24.5 Receiving Yards (51%) Projection 31.02 (Over)
The Cowboys are projected to pass on 62.5% of their opportunities in a game expected to feature 132.5 offensive plays, with Dallas averaging 59.8 plays per game since last season, and the matchup advantages including favorable conditions for passing and Jake Ferguson's strong performance as a receiving tight end.
AI Analysis
C.J. Stroud o32.5 Passing Attempts (53%) Projection 35.9 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities, ranking 7th in the league, with the game expected to have the 3rd-highest play volume at 132.5 plays, while C.J. Stroud is anticipated to have 37.5 pass attempts, the 6th most among QBs.
AI Analysis
Dalton Schultz u49.5 Receiving Yards (63%) Projection 44.22 (Under)
The Cowboys pass defense has allowed an average of 3.18 yards-after-the-catch to opposing TEs this year, ranking 7th-fewest in the league.
AI Analysis
David Montgomery o49.5 Rushing Yards (52%) Projection 54.39 (Over)
The game is projected to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays this week at 132.5, with David Montgomery expected to have 13.7 rush attempts, while the Cowboys defense ranks 4th-worst against the run, allowing 5.38 adjusted yards-per-carry.
AI Analysis
Dak Prescott u274.5 Passing Yards (55%) Projection 261.48 (Under)
The Dallas Cowboys' offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league for protecting the passer since last season, while the Houston Texans' defense allows a 65.2% Adjusted Completion Rate and 6.95 adjusted yards-per-target, ranking 2nd-best in both metrics.
AI Analysis
David Montgomery o39.5 Rushing Yards (62%) Projection 51.01 (Over)
This game is projected to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays this week at 132.7, while the Houston Texans have averaged 61.0 plays per game since last season, David Montgomery has a 52.1% carry share this season compared to 35.1% last season, averaging 40.0 adjusted rushing yards per game, and the Cowboys defense ranks 4th-worst in run efficiency, allowing 5.38 adjusted yards-per-carry.
AI Analysis
David Montgomery o44.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 54.58 (Over)
The game is projected to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays this week at 132.7, while the Houston Texans have the 2nd-most plays in the league with an average of 61.0 per game; David Montgomery has a 52.1% carry share this season and averages 40.0 adjusted rushing yards per game, and the Cowboys defense ranks 4th-worst in run efficiency, allowing 5.38 adjusted yards-per-carry.
AI Analysis
Dak Prescott o9.5 Rushing Yards (54%) Projection 17.8 (Over)
The contest is projected to feature 132.5 offensive plays, the 3rd-most of the week, with the Dallas Cowboys averaging 59.8 plays per game, ranking 5th in the league, while Dak Prescott's rush attempts have increased from 8.8% to 14.5% this season.
AI Analysis
Javonte Williams u14.5 Receiving Yards (56%) Projection 12.57 (Under)
Javonte Williams averages -4.0 air yards per game since last season, ranking in the 4th percentile among running backs, while the Dallas Cowboys' offensive line is the 3rd worst in pass protection; the Texans' pass defense ranks 7th best against running backs with 5.32 adjusted yards-per-target and allows the 4th least yards-after-the-catch at 0.6 YAC.
AI Analysis
C.J. Stroud o21.5 Passing Completions (51%) Projection 23.46 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities, ranking 7th this week, with the game expected to feature 132.5 total plays, the 3rd-highest volume, while Houston has averaged 61.0 plays per game since last season and the game will be played indoors, enhancing passing efficiency.
AI Analysis
Javonte Williams u14.5 Receiving Yards (57%) Projection 12.57 (Under)
Javonte Williams has averaged -4.0 air yards per game since last season, ranking in the 4th percentile among running backs, while the Dallas Cowboys' offensive line has been the 3rd-worst in pass protection, and the Texans' pass defense has limited running backs to 5.32 adjusted yards-per-target (7th-fewest) and 0.6 yards-after-the-catch (4th-least) since last season.
AI Analysis
Javonte Williams u14.5 Receiving Yards (60%) Projection 12.57 (Under)
Since the start of last season, Javonte Williams has averaged -4.0 air yards per game, the Dallas Cowboys' offensive line ranks 3rd worst in pass protection, the Texans pass defense has allowed 5.32 adjusted yards-per-target to running backs, and they have given up the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch to opposing RBs at 0.6 YAC.
AI Analysis
David Montgomery o10.5 Receiving Yards (52%) Projection 15.77 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities, ranking 6th among all teams this week, with the game expected to feature 132.7 total plays, the 3rd highest, while the Texans have averaged 61.0 plays per game since last season and David Montgomery has improved his Adjusted Catch% from 91.6% to 100.0%, with the Cowboys defense allowing 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, the 2nd most in the league.
AI Analysis
Dalton Schultz u49.5 Receiving Yards (60%) Projection 44.22 (Under)
The Cowboys pass defense allows an average of 3.18 yards-after-the-catch to opposing tight ends, ranking 7th-fewest in the league.
AI Analysis
Dalton Schultz o39.5 Receiving Yards (60%) Projection 44.22 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities this week, with the game expected to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays at 132.5, while they rank 2nd in the league for play calls since last season, averaging 61.0 per game; Dalton Schultz averages 39.0 adjusted yards per game and ranks in the 89th percentile among tight ends, while the Cowboys pass defense has a 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate against TEs, the 3rd-worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Jake Ferguson o24.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 31.02 (Over)
The projections indicate the Cowboys are expected to pass on 62.5% of opportunities, anticipate 132.5 offensive plays in the game, and note Dallas has the 5th-most plays in the league since last season, averaging 59.8 plays per game, with the game being played in a dome and Jake Ferguson averaging 33.0 adjusted receiving yards per game.
AI Analysis
Dalton Schultz o39.5 Receiving Yards (59%) Projection 44.22 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass 60.5% of the time, ranking 6th this week, with the game expected to have 132.7 total plays, and Dalton Schultz averaging 39.0 adjusted yards per game, while the Cowboys' pass defense has a 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate against tight ends, the 3rd-worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Nico Collins o69.5 Receiving Yards (57%) Projection 84.26 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities in a matchup expected to feature 132.5 total plays, with Houston averaging 61.0 plays per game since last season and facing a Cowboys pass defense that allows the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% against wideouts.
AI Analysis
Jake Ferguson Score a Touchdown (Yes: 23%)
Jake Ferguson has scored touchdowns in consecutive weeks and is priced at 4.3x for his TD this week against the Texans, despite a lower projected team total for the Cowboys and a perceived undervaluation compared to his previous fair price of 3.4x.
AI Analysis
C.J. Stroud o249.5 Passing Yards (52%) Projection 281.49 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass 60.5% of the time, ranking 6th among teams this week, with the game expected to feature 132.7 plays, the 3rd-highest volume, while the Texans have averaged 61.0 plays per game since last season and will play in a dome, enhancing passing conditions, as opposing QBs have a 75.8% adjusted completion rate against the Cowboys defense since last season.
AI Analysis
Nico Collins Score a Touchdown (Yes: 38%) Projection 0.54 (Yes)
The projections indicate the Houston Texans are expected to pass 60.5% of the time, ranking 6th in the league, with a 59.5% red zone pass rate, while the game is forecasted to have 132.7 plays, and the Texans have the 2nd-most plays called on average since last season at 61.0 per game, all taking place in a dome.
AI Analysis
C.J. Stroud o244.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 281.49 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities, ranking 6th highest this week, in a game expected to have 132.7 total plays, while Houston has the 2nd-most plays called in the league since last season, and the game will be played indoors, enhancing passing efficiency.
AI Analysis
C.J. Stroud o9.5 Rushing Yards (60%) Projection 19.1 (Over)
The model estimates this game will have the 3rd-highest play volume of the week at 132.7 plays, while the Houston Texans have the 2nd-most plays in the league with an average of 61.0 per game, and the Cowboys defense ranks 4th-worst in run efficiency, allowing 5.38 adjusted yards-per-carry.
AI Analysis
Dalton Schultz o39.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 44.2 (Over)
The Texans are projected to pass 60.5% of the time this week, ranking 6th in the league, with a forecasted total of 132.7 plays, the 3rd-highest volume, while Dalton Schultz averages 39.0 adjusted yards per game, and the Cowboys' defense has allowed an 80.6% adjusted completion rate to tight ends, the 3rd-worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Jake Ferguson o23.5 Receiving Yards (53%)
Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson has caught seven passes for 66 yards over the past two games and faces a vulnerable Houston defense that has allowed tight ends to accumulate 213 yards this season.
AI Analysis
Jake Ferguson Score a Touchdown (Yes: 19%)
Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson has scored three touchdowns in the last two games, catching all four red zone targets this season, with Week 4 touchdown projections between 25% and 40%.
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