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Cincinnati
Bengals · Away
Pittsburgh
Steelers · Home
Model Picks
15AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o220.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 234.88 (Over)
The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs, projected to have the 5th-most pass-heavy offense with a 61.8% pass rate, while Aaron Rodgers is expected to have 36.6 pass attempts, and the Bengals defense has allowed 247.0 adjusted passing yards per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown (Yes: 21%) Projection 0.29 (Yes)
The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs, projected to have a 65.5% pass rate and be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense this week, while also expecting a 73.5% red zone pass rate and a total of 129.2 offensive plays in the game.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth o34.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 38.22 (Over)
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog, projected as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense with a 61.8% pass rate, while Pat Freiermuth is expected to receive an average of 4.9 targets, against the Bengals defense that allows the most adjusted receiving yards per game to tight ends.
AI Analysis
Ja'Marr Chase o74.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 94.15 (Over)
The predictive model forecasts the Cincinnati Bengals will have a 64.6% pass rate and be the 8th-fastest paced offense, while the Steelers defense ranks as a pass funnel allowing 34.3 passes per game, with Ja'Marr Chase projected to receive 11.6 targets, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Chase Brown u63.5 Rushing Yards (52%) Projection 59.46 (Under)
The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 35.4% of their downs, the lowest rate this week, while the Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has allowed 4.12 adjusted yards-per-carry, ranking 25th in the league, despite having the strongest defensive tackles for run stopping.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o52.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 57.48 (Over)
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog with a projected 61.8% pass rate, making them the 5th-most pass-heavy offense this week, while DK Metcalf is forecasted to receive 8.2 targets, ranking in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth o36.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 38.25 (Over)
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog, projected as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense with a 61.8% pass rate, and Pat Freiermuth is expected to receive an average of 4.9 targets, as the Bengals have allowed the most adjusted receiving yards per game to tight ends.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth o32.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 40.75 (Over)
The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs with a projected 65.5% pass rate, and the game is expected to see 129.2 offensive plays, with tight end Pat Freiermuth averaging 5.2 targets, while the Bengals defense allows 83.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to tight ends.
AI Analysis
Ja'Marr Chase o4.5 Receptions Made (83%) Projection 8.05 (Over)
The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to have a 64.6% pass rate this week, be the 8th-fastest paced offense, face a Steelers defense that allows the 5th-most pass attempts, and Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the 99th percentile for route participation and the 100th percentile for adjusted catches per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o23.5 Passing Completions (53%) Projection 28.94 (Over)
The predictive model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to have a 64.6% pass rate this week, making them the most pass-focused offense, while Joe Burrow is expected to lead all quarterbacks with 38.7 pass attempts, against a Steelers defense that allows the 5th-most passes and has an 8th-worst Adjusted Completion Rate of 72.6% since last season.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o253.5 Passing Yards (49%) Projection 310.98 (Over)
The predictive model indicates the Cincinnati Bengals will have a 64.6% pass rate, with Joe Burrow projected to lead all quarterbacks with 38.7 pass attempts, while the Steelers defense has allowed the 5th-most passes since last season.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers Score a Touchdown (Yes: 7%) Projection 0.09 (Yes)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected as a 3.5-point underdog and expected to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense this week with a 61.8% overall and 64.6% red zone pass rate, while also being the 2nd-fastest paced team, and Aaron Rodgers is predicted to have the 6th-most pass attempts at 36.6.
AI Analysis
Ja'Marr Chase o69.5 Receiving Yards (60%) Projection 94.07 (Over)
The predictive model estimates the Cincinnati Bengals will have a 64.6% pass rate this week, project them as the 8th-fastest paced offense, and indicates the Steelers defense has led opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes, while Ja'Marr Chase is expected to receive 11.6 targets, ranking in the 100th percentile for wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o224.5 Passing Yards (49%) Projection 251.76 (Over)
The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs, projected to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense this week with a 65.5% pass rate, contributing to an expected 129.2 offensive plays in the game, while Aaron Rodgers is forecasted to have 39.1 pass attempts, against a Bengals defense that has allowed 247.0 adjusted passing yards per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o249.5 Passing Yards (55%) Projection 319.61 (Over)
The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to have a 65.6% pass rate and to call 64.9 total plays, with Joe Burrow projected for 39.7 pass attempts, as the Steelers defense leads in allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes since last season.
AI Analysis
Chase Brown o21.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 24.49 (Over)
The predictive model indicates that the Cincinnati Bengals will have a 65.6% pass rate, ranking as the 2nd-most pass-focused offense, while also being the 8th-fastest paced defense, allowing 28.13 seconds per snap, and notes that the Steelers defense has led to the 5th-most pass attempts per game by opposing quarterbacks since last season, with Chase Brown projected to be in the 95th percentile for running backs with 5.0 targets and ranking in the 79th percentile for air yards at 1.0 per game.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o34.5 Passing Attempts (52%) Projection 37.43 (Over)
The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs and are projected to have a 65.5% pass rate, making them the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense this week, while the game is expected to feature 129.2 offensive plays and Aaron Rodgers is forecasted to have 39.1 pass attempts, ranking him 3rd among QBs.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o49.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 57.5 (Over)
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog, projected as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense with a 61.8% pass rate, while DK Metcalf is forecasted for 8.2 targets, ranking in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o220.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 251.76 (Over)
The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs in a game projected for 129.2 offensive plays, with a 65.5% pass rate, while Aaron Rodgers is expected to have 39.1 pass attempts, and the Bengals have allowed 247.0 adjusted passing yards per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth u3.5 Receptions Made (45%) Projection 3.42 (Under)
The Cincinnati defensive ends rank as the 7th-best unit in the NFL for rushing the passer since the beginning of last season, with a grade of 45% at Novig.
AI Analysis
Chase Brown Score a Touchdown (Yes: 58%) Projection 0.65 (Yes)
The predictive model indicates that the Cincinnati Bengals will have a 64.7% pass rate this week, a 62.0% red zone pass rate, and rank as the 8th-fastest paced defense, while the Steelers defense has allowed the 5th-most pass attempts per game since last season, and Chase Brown ranks in the 79th percentile for air yards among running backs.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o253.5 Passing Yards (55%) Projection 311.06 (Over)
The predictive model indicates that the Cincinnati Bengals are expected to have a 64.7% pass rate this week, with Joe Burrow projected to make the most pass attempts (38.7) among quarterbacks, while the Steelers defense has allowed the 5th-most passing attempts per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Chase Brown Score a Touchdown (Yes: 52%) Projection 0.65 (Yes)
The predictive model indicates the Cincinnati Bengals will have a 64.7% pass rate this week, a 62.0% red zone pass rate, and be the 8th-fastest-paced offense, while the Steelers defense has allowed the 5th-most pass attempts per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Ja'Marr Chase o74.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 94.15 (Over)
The predictive model estimates the Cincinnati Bengals will have a 64.6% pass rate and rank as the 8th-fastest paced defense, with Ja'Marr Chase projected to receive 11.6 targets, putting him in the 100th percentile for wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown (Yes: 21%) Projection 0.26 (Yes)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs, projected to have a 61.8% pass rate, ranking as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense this week, with a 64.6% red zone pass rate and the 2nd-fastest pace in the league; Pat Freiermuth averages 22.0 air yards per game, placing him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o49.5 Receiving Yards (57%) Projection 57.48 (Over)
The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs, projected as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense with a 61.8% pass rate, and are currently the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league, while DK Metcalf has a 93.0% Route Participation Rate and is forecasted for 8.2 targets, ranking in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Ja'Marr Chase o79.5 Receiving Yards (49%) Projection 94.15 (Over)
The predictive model ranks the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-focused offense this week with a 64.6% pass rate, while Ja'Marr Chase is forecasted to receive 11.6 targets, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Ja'Marr Chase Score a Touchdown (Yes: 43%)
Chase leads all Bengals WRs in red-zone targets and recorded 161 yards, 16 catches, and a TD in last year's first meeting against the Steelers, who have depth issues in their cornerback position.
AI Analysis
Tee Higgins Score a Touchdown (Yes: 36%)
In 2026, the Bengals have not targeted Tee Higgins in the red zone yet, despite his previous two seasons with double-digit touchdowns and Andrei Iosivas being sidelined.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (50%)
Burrow has thrown for 18 total touchdowns in the past eight games, while the Steelers face backfield concerns and defensive uncertainties due to injuries and contract disputes.
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