NFL picks
Pittsburgh
Steelers · Away
New England
Patriots · Home
Model Picks
14AI Analysis
Drake Maye o224.5 Passing Yards (51%) Projection 243.69 (Over)
The New England Patriots are projected to run the 9th-most offensive plays this week with 64.6, while the Steelers defense has allowed the 5th-most pass attempts in the NFL and the 6th-most adjusted passing yards per game, with the Patriots' offensive line graded 4th-best in pass blocking since last season.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers Score a Touchdown (Yes: 8%) Projection 0.09 (Yes)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, projected to have a passing game script with a 64.0% overall pass rate and a 63.3% red zone pass rate, while Aaron Rodgers is forecasted to have 37.7 pass attempts, with the Steelers' offensive line ranking as the 2nd-best in pass protection last year.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o206.5 Passing Yards (55%) Projection 244.15 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5.5-point underdogs this week, projected as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team with a 64.0% pass rate, while Aaron Rodgers is expected to have the 3rd-most pass attempts at 37.7, and the Patriots defense allowed a 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate last year.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown (Yes: 17%) Projection 0.22 (Yes)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5.5-point underdogs with a projected 64.1% pass rate and are expected to be the most pass-centric team in the red zone with a 63.1% rate, while also being the second-fastest paced team, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap, and tight end Pat Freiermuth ranks in the 83rd percentile for air yards at 10.6%.
AI Analysis
Romeo Doubs Score a Touchdown (Yes: 27%) Projection 0.37 (Yes)
The New England Patriots are projected to have a 59.4% red zone pass rate, ranking them 6th in the league, and to run 64.6 offensive plays this week, while the Steelers defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to attempt an average of 34.9 passes per game since last season; Romeo Doubs has a 22.7% red zone target share and ranks in the 80th percentile for air yards at 68.0 per game.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown (Yes: 18%) Projection 0.22 (Yes)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5.5-point underdogs this week, projected to have a 64.0% pass rate and a 63.3% red zone pass rate, with Pat Freiermuth expected to receive 16.8% of the team's red zone targets and ranking in the 83rd percentile for air yards among tight ends last year.
AI Analysis
Romeo Doubs Score a Touchdown (Yes: 27%) Projection 0.37 (Yes)
The New England Patriots are projected to have a 59.4% red zone pass rate and call the 9th-most offensive plays this week, while the Steelers defense has allowed the 5th-most pass attempts per game since last season, and Romeo Doubs ranks in the 90th percentile for red zone target share and the 80th percentile for air yards among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown (Yes: 15%)
Pat Freiermuth had a 20.8% probability of scoring, recorded a 5-46-1 line with six targets in Week 1, and had a strong red-zone role with two targets.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o21.5 Passing Completions (51%)
Rodgers completed 24 of 40 passes in Week 1, achieving a 75.2% adjusted completion percentage, and is expected to surpass this total against the Patriots with support from running backs Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf Score a Touchdown (Yes: 24%)
Metcalf led the Steelers in targets with a 27% share in Week 1 and received 28.6% of red-zone touches in 2025, benefiting from a size advantage over the New England secondary.
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