NFL picks
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Colts · Away
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Model Picks
14AI Analysis
Josh Downs o39.5 Receiving Yards (52%) Projection 51.86 (Over)
The Colts are 6.5-point underdogs this week, and their predictive model suggests they will pass on 0.0% of their opportunities, with Josh Downs expected to average 7.3 targets, ranking in the 88th percentile among wide receivers, while their offensive line is the best in QB protection since last season; however, Downs has the lowest yards-after-the-catch average, scoring in the 1st percentile.
AI Analysis
Kenneth Walker u18.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 15.44 (Under)
The Chiefs are favored by 6.5 points this week, indicating a likely rushing game script, while projections estimate they will pass on 54.6% of plays, the 7th-lowest rate; Kenneth Walker III ranked in the 9th percentile among RBs for air yards last year, averaging -3.0 per game, and had a 0.00 yards-after-the-catch, with the Colts defense allowing the least adjusted yards-per-target to RBs at 4.8 yards.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o8.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 20.96 (Over)
The Colts have the second-most games in low wind conditions since last season, likely leading to reduced passing efficiency and increased running volume, while Daniel Jones has an impressive 6.3 adjusted yards per carry, ranking in the 83rd percentile among rushing quarterbacks.
AI Analysis
Patrick Mahomes u15.5 Rushing Yards (52%) Projection 0.62 (Under)
Last year, the Colts run defense allowed 4.11 adjusted yards-per-carry, ranking 27th in the NFL.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o218.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 230.11 (Over)
The Indianapolis Colts are 6.5-point underdogs this week, with a predictive model anticipating 130.6 total plays and the lowest passing frequency of 0.0%, while Daniel Jones averaged 198.0 adjusted passing yards per game and the Kansas City Chiefs defense allowed a 75.0% adjusted completion rate.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones u9.5 Rushing Yards (54%) Projection 5.31 (Under)
The Colts are 6.5-point underdogs this week, projected to have a 39.8% run rate and an average of 54.3 plays per game, while opposing offenses averaged 106.0 adjusted rushing yards against the Chiefs defense last year.
AI Analysis
Kenneth Walker o18.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 20.76 (Over)
The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 66 offensive plays this week, while the Indianapolis Colts allowed the second-most passes last year, and Kenneth Walker III is expected to account for 13% of Kansas City's targets with the Chiefs' offensive line ranked 8th in protection.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones u9.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 5.31 (Under)
The Colts are 6.5-point underdogs this week, projected to have a 39.8% run rate, ranking them as the 6th-least run-oriented team, while averaging 54.3 plays per game since last season, and opposing offenses ran for the 8th-fewest adjusted yards against the Kansas City Chiefs defense last year.
AI Analysis
Jonathan Taylor u86.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 80.89 (Under)
The Indianapolis Colts are a 6.5-point underdog this week, expected to have a 40.4% run rate and call 64.6 offensive plays, which ranks 10th highest this week, despite averaging only 54.3 plays per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Kenneth Walker o77.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 84.27 (Over)
The projections indicate that the Kansas City Chiefs, favored by 6.5 points, are expected to run on 46.0% of their downs and run the 3rd-most plays on offense with 66.0 plays this week, while Kenneth Walker III is forecasted to have 19.9 carries, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
AI Analysis
Kenneth Walker Score a Touchdown (Yes: 69%) Projection 0.92 (Yes)
The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 66.0 offensive plays this week, ranking 3rd, while the Indianapolis Colts defense allowed the 2nd-most passes last year, with Kenneth Walker III expected to have a 12.8% Red Zone Target Share and to be among the top possession receivers with a catch rate of 91.5%.
AI Analysis
Kenneth Walker Score a Touchdown (Yes: 67%) Projection 0.92 (Yes)
The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 66.0 offensive plays this week, ranking 3rd in the league, while the Indianapolis Colts defense allowed the 2nd-most passes last year with 36.2 per game; Kenneth Walker III is expected to receive a 12.8% Red Zone Target Share this week, significantly higher than his 4.5% from last season, and the Chiefs' offensive line ranked 8th in pocket protection last year.
AI Analysis
Jonathan Taylor u87.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 84.13 (Under)
The Colts are 6.5-point underdogs this week, projected as the 6th-least run-oriented team with a 39.8% run rate, averaging 54.3 plays per game, while opposing offenses averaged 106.0 adjusted yards against the Chiefs defense last year.
AI Analysis
Kenneth Walker o19.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 20.76 (Over)
The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 66.0 offensive plays this week, ranking third in the NFL, while the Indianapolis Colts defense allowed the second-most passes last year; Kenneth Walker III is expected to exceed his typical target share to 13.0% in this matchup.
AI Analysis
Kenneth Walker o79.5 Rushing Yards (52%) Projection 84.27 (Over)
The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by 6.5 points and are projected to run 46.0% of their plays, while Kenneth Walker III is forecasted for 19.9 carries, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o3.5 Receptions Made (55%) Projection 4.71 (Over)
The Colts are 6.5-point underdogs in their upcoming game, are projected to pass 0.0% of the time, will see an estimated 130.6 total plays called, Josh Downs had 3.1 adjusted receptions per game last year, and the Chiefs pass defense allowed a 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate.
AI Analysis
Rashee Rice Score a Touchdown (Yes: 37%) Projection 0.5 (Yes)
Since the start of last season, the Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 4th-most pass attempts per game in the NFL, while the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive line has been ranked 9th in pocket protection, Rashee Rice has caught 70.0% of targets and ranks in the 98th percentile for touchdowns per game among wide receivers, and the Colts' pass defense has the 9th-highest adjusted completion percentage against wide receivers at 66.7%.
AI Analysis
Tyler Warren o42.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 44.36 (Over)
The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog this week, expected to pass 0.0% of the time, with the game predicted to have 130.6 total plays, while the Colts' offensive line was the best in QB protection last year and the Chiefs' pass defense allowed an 86.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to tight ends.
AI Analysis
Patrick Mahomes u249.5 Passing Yards (82%) Projection 215.32 (Under)
The Kansas City Chiefs, favored by 6.5 points, are projected to pass on 54.0% of their opportunities, the 7th-lowest rate this week.
AI Analysis
Kenneth Walker Score a Touchdown (Yes: 65%) Projection 0.81 (Yes)
The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 4th-most passes in the NFL since last season, while Kenneth Walker III is projected for a 12.8% Red Zone Target Share this week, the Chiefs' offensive line is the 9th-best in protecting the pocket, and the Colts' safeties are ranked 2nd-worst at defending receivers.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o39.5 Receiving Yards (51%) Projection 52.87 (Over)
The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog this week and are expected to pass 0.0% of the time, with a projected 130.6 total plays called; Josh Downs is anticipated to receive 7.6 targets, while the Chiefs' pass defense has allowed a 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers, the 6th-highest in the league.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o8.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 20.96 (Over)
Since the start of last season, the Colts have participated in the second-most "low wind" games in the league, likely leading to decreased passing opportunities and increased running chances, while Daniel Jones ranks among the top rushing quarterbacks with 6.3 adjusted yards per carry.
AI Analysis
Patrick Mahomes Score a Touchdown (Yes: 23%) Projection 0.34 (Yes)
Since the start of last season, the Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 4th-most pass attempts in the NFL, while the Kansas City Chiefs have the 9th-best offensive line, and Patrick Mahomes averages 1.60 touchdown passes per game, although the Colts' safeties are ranked as the 2nd-worst in defending receivers.
AI Analysis
Kenneth Walker o79.5 Rushing Yards (54%) Projection 84.27 (Over)
The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by 6.5 points and are projected to run 46.0% of the time, expecting to run the 3rd-most plays on offense this week, while Kenneth Walker III is forecasted for 19.9 carries, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
AI Analysis
Rashee Rice u4.5 Receptions Made (45%) Projection 4.17 (Under)
The Kansas City Chiefs, favored by 6.5 points, are projected to pass on 52.7% of their plays, which is the 7th-lowest rate this week.
AI Analysis
Patrick Mahomes o17.5 Rushing Yards (54%) Projection 25.4 (Over)
The Kansas City Chiefs, favored by 6.5 points, are projected to run on 47.3% of their downs, with Patrick Mahomes ranked in the 83rd percentile for rushing utilization and adjusted yards per game, while the Indianapolis Colts safeties rank 30th in run defense.
AI Analysis
Patrick Mahomes Score a Touchdown (Yes: 22%) Projection 0.33 (Yes)
Since the start of last season, the Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 4th-most passes per game, the Kansas City Chiefs' O-line ranks 9th in protection, Patrick Mahomes averages 1.60 touchdown passes per game while grading in the 88th percentile, and the Colts' safeties are the 2nd-worst in the league at defending receivers.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o9.5 Rushing Yards (49%) Projection 20.92 (Over)
The Colts have the second-most 'low wind' games in the league since last season, potentially leading to reduced passing effectiveness in windy conditions, while Daniel Jones ranks highly as a rushing quarterback with 6.3 adjusted yards per carry.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o9.5 Rushing Yards (50%) Projection 20.92 (Over)
Since the start of last season, the Colts have played in the second-most 'low wind' games in the league, likely leading to lower pass volume and increased running volume, while Daniel Jones has averaged 6.3 adjusted yards per carry, ranking in the 83rd percentile among rushing quarterbacks.
AI Analysis
Rashee Rice u54.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 50.82 (Under)
The Kansas City Chiefs, favored by 6.5 points, are projected to pass on 52.7% of their plays, ranking 7th-lowest for the week.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones Score a Touchdown (Yes: 16%) Projection 0.22 (Yes)
The Colts are 6.5-point underdogs this week, with a predictive model suggesting they will pass 0.0% of the time, while their offensive line ranks best in the NFL for quarterback protection, and the Chiefs defense has allowed a 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate, the third-highest in the league.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs Score a Touchdown (Yes: 22%) Projection 0.28 (Yes)
The Indianapolis Colts are 6.5-point underdogs this week, expected to have the lowest passing frequency at 0.0%, while Josh Downs ranks in the top tier with a 19.2% Red Zone Target Rate, and their offensive line has been rated the best in QB protection, contrasting with the Kansas City Chiefs' defense, which has allowed a 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate since last season.
AI Analysis
Patrick Mahomes o17.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 25.47 (Over)
The Chiefs, favored by 6.5 points, are projected to rush on 47.3% of their downs, with Patrick Mahomes ranking in the 83rd percentile for rushing attempts and adjusted yards, while the Colts' safeties are rated as the 30th-worst in run defense.
AI Analysis
Patrick Mahomes u217.5 Passing Yards (49%) Projection 204.21 (Under)
The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by 6.5 points, indicating a rushing game script, with projections showing they will pass on 52.7% of their chances and Patrick Mahomes expected to have 31.5 pass attempts, the 8th-fewest among quarterbacks this week.
AI Analysis
Patrick Mahomes o14.5 Rushing Yards (59%) Projection 25.47 (Over)
This week's spread suggests a 6.5-point favor for the Chiefs with a projected 47.3% rushing rate, while Patrick Mahomes ranks in the 83rd percentile for QB rushing attempts and adjusted yards per game, and the Colts safeties are rated 30th in run defense since last season.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones Score a Touchdown (Yes: 15%) Projection 0.21 (Yes)
The Indianapolis Colts are 6.5-point underdogs this week, and despite their strong offensive line, predictive models suggest they will not attempt any passes, while the Kansas City Chiefs' defense has the third-highest Adjusted Completion Rate against quarterbacks.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o40.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 51.86 (Over)
The Indianapolis Colts are 6.5-point underdogs this week, expected to pass 0.0% of the time, with Josh Downs projected for 7.3 targets, while the Colts' offensive line ranks best in QB protection since last season, but Downs is among the worst in yards-after-the-catch at 0.00 YAC.
AI Analysis
Patrick Mahomes Score a Touchdown (Yes: 23%) Projection 0.33 (Yes)
Since the start of last season, the Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 4th-most passing attempts in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive line ranks 9th for protection, Patrick Mahomes averages 1.60 touchdown passes per game while ranking in the 88th percentile, and the Colts safeties are the 2nd-worst in the league at defending receivers.
AI Analysis
Patrick Mahomes Score a Touchdown (Yes: 22%) Projection 0.33 (Yes)
Since the start of last season, the Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 4th-most passes in the NFL, while the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive line ranks 9th in protection, and Patrick Mahomes averages 1.60 touchdown passes per game, with the Colts' safeties being the 2nd-worst in the league against receivers.
AI Analysis
Rashee Rice Score a Touchdown (Yes: 36%) Projection 0.5 (Yes)
Since the start of last season, the Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 4th-most passes per game in the NFL, while the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive line ranks 9th in protecting the quarterback, Rashee Rice has caught 70% of passes thrown to him and has a receiving touchdown rate in the 98th percentile, yet the Colts' pass defense has the 9th-highest adjusted completion percentage against wide receivers at 66.7%.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o199.5 Passing Yards (65%) Projection 224.88 (Over)
The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog this week and are predicted to pass 0.0% of their opportunities, the lowest in the league, while boasting the best offensive line for QB protection since last season against a Chiefs defense that has allowed a 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones Score a Touchdown (Yes: 16%) Projection 0.21 (Yes)
The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog this week, expected to pass on 0.0% of their opportunities, while their offensive line is rated the best in the NFL for quarterback protection and the Chiefs defense has allowed a 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate, with their linebackers being highly effective against the run since last season.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o40.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 51.86 (Over)
The Colts are 6.5-point underdogs this week, expected to pass 0.0% of their opportunities, with Josh Downs projected for 7.3 targets in the 88th percentile among wideouts, while the Colts' offensive line is rated best for QB protection since last season, and Downs ranks poorly in yards-after-the-catch with an average of 0.00 YAC.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o9.5 Rushing Yards (51%) Projection 20.92 (Over)
Since the start of last season, the Colts have played the second-most games with low wind conditions, leading to lower passing volume and effectiveness, while Daniel Jones has maintained an impressive 6.3 adjusted yards per carry, ranking in the 83rd percentile among quarterbacks.
AI Analysis
Rashee Rice Score a Touchdown (Yes: 39%) Projection 0.5 (Yes)
Since the start of last season, the Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 4th-most passes per game in the NFL, while the Kansas City Chiefs' O-line ranks 9th in pocket protection, Rashee Rice has caught 70.0% of passes thrown to him and has a touchdown rate of 0.67 per game, and the Colts' pass defense has the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% at 66.7% against wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Rashee Rice Score a Touchdown (Yes: 37%)
The Colts allowed 324 passing yards to Lamar Jackson, with 132 yards from slot receivers, prompting a focus on Rice for the matchup, as he topped Chiefs WRs in snaps and scored his eighth TD in 13 games.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o8.5 Rushing Yards (52%)
Jones faced pressure from the Baltimore defense in the opener, recording one carry for four yards, although he had a history of rushing success, gaining at least 10 yards in five of his 13 starts last season.
AI Analysis
Alec Pierce Score a Touchdown (Yes: 22%)
Kenneth Walker's betting odds have shifted, making Chiefs players difficult to back, while the Colts are seen as underdogs despite the Chiefs' short week; Alec Pierce's odds have dropped from 4.5x to a fair 3.4x, and despite prior injuries, he played nearly 90% of snaps in the second half of Week 1.
AI Analysis
Rashee Rice Score a Touchdown (Yes: 38%)
Rashee Rice is currently trading at a 36% probability on Kalshi, while projections estimate his chance of scoring against the Indianapolis Colts to be around 46%, benefiting from favorable matchup conditions.
AI Analysis
Kenneth Walker III o79.5 Rushing Yards (53%)
Derrick Henry ran for 144 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts, while Kenneth Walker rushed for 173 yards on 23 attempts against the Broncos, with the Chiefs likely to rely on Walker to manage the game on Sunday night.
AI Analysis
Patrick Mahomes o224.5 Passing Yards (52%)
Patrick Mahomes has the highest passing yards per game in NFL history at 284.4, while his passing prop was 225.5 against the Broncos, who have a stronger pass defense and pass rush compared to the Colts.
AI Analysis
Alec Pierce u2.5 Receptions Made (44%)
Alec Pierce primarily runs vertical routes, which are easily defended by cornerbacks, and he is being affected by Colts QB Daniel Jones's struggles as one of the least effective primetime quarterbacks and his recovery from a season-ending Achilles tear.
AI Analysis
Tyquan Thornton o14.5 Receiving Yards (54%)
Kansas City WR Tyquan Thornton gained at least 19 receiving yards in eight of his 14 games last season and had the highest aDOT in the league at 26.8 yards per target.
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