NFL picks
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Saints · Away
Baltimore
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Model Picks
13AI Analysis
Derrick Henry Score a Touchdown (Yes: 70%) Projection 0.94 (Yes)
The Ravens are projected to run 66.0 offensive plays, ranking 3rd this week, while Derrick Henry averaged 1.0 air yards per game in the 78th percentile among RBs; the Saints allowed an 87.6% Adjusted Completion Rate against RBs, had the 6th-fewest rushing TDs allowed, and their safeties ranked 10th worst in covering pass-catchers last year.
AI Analysis
Derrick Henry Score a Touchdown (Yes: 68%) Projection 0.94 (Yes)
The Ravens are projected to call 66.0 offensive plays, ranking 3rd among all teams this week, while Derrick Henry achieved 1.0 air yards per game, placing him in the 78th percentile among RBs, and the New Orleans Saints' pass defense had an 87.6% Adjusted Completion Rate against RBs, the 3rd highest, with opponents rushing for the 6th-fewest TDs at 0.71 per game and the Saints safeties ranking 10th-worst in covering pass-catchers.
AI Analysis
Derrick Henry Score a Touchdown (Yes: 66%) Projection 0.94 (Yes)
The Ravens are projected to run 66 offensive plays, ranking 3rd among NFL teams, while Derrick Henry was in the 78th percentile for air yards per game last year at 1.0; the New Orleans Saints allowed an 87.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to RBs, ranking 3rd highest in the league, and opposing offenses scored the 6th-fewest rushing TDs at 0.71 per game against them, with their safeties ranking 10th-worst in covering pass-catchers.
AI Analysis
Derrick Henry Score a Touchdown (Yes: 69%) Projection 0.94 (Yes)
The Ravens are projected to run 66 offensive plays in their upcoming game, while Derrick Henry ranked in the 78th percentile for air yards among RBs last year, averaging 1.0 per game; the Saints' pass defense allowed an 87.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs, ranked 3rd worst, and they conceded the 6th-fewest rushing TDs at 0.71 per game, with their safeties ranking 10th worst in covering pass-catchers.
AI Analysis
Chris Olave Score a Touchdown (Yes: 36%) Projection 0.49 (Yes)
The New Orleans Saints are 8.5-point underdogs this week, projected to pass on 61.0% of plays, the 4th-highest rate, with an expected 57.5% red zone pass rate and a total of 131.1 plays in the game.
AI Analysis
Lamar Jackson u39.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 33.85 (Under)
Since the start of last season, the Baltimore Ravens have averaged 52.2 plays per game, ranking 3rd-fewest in the NFL, while the Saints safeties were ranked 23rd in run defense last year.
AI Analysis
Chris Olave o69.5 Receiving Yards (51%) Projection 75.8 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints are 8.5-point underdogs this week, projected to pass 61.0% of the time, with expectations of 131.1 total plays, as the Baltimore Ravens defense has allowed the second-most passes in the NFL since last season, while Chris Olave averages 65.0 adjusted yards per game and ranks in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Chris Olave o74.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 75.8 (Over)
The New Orleans Saints are 8.5-point underdogs this week, projected to pass 61.0% of the time and run the 3rd-most plays at 131.1, while the Baltimore Ravens defense induces the 2nd-most passes in the NFL, and Chris Olave averages 65.0 adjusted yards per game, ranking in the 96th percentile.
AI Analysis
Derrick Henry o89.5 Rushing Yards (54%) Projection 95.21 (Over)
The Ravens are 8.5-point favorites this week, expected to implement a run-heavy strategy with a 49.8% run rate and 66 offensive plays, while Derrick Henry is projected for 21.8 carries, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
AI Analysis
Lamar Jackson u39.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 16.46 (Under)
Since the start of last season, the Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football with an average of 52.2 plays per game, while the New Orleans Saints defense had the 4th-best efficiency against run games, allowing 4.10 adjusted yards-per-carry.
AI Analysis
Derrick Henry Score a Touchdown (Yes: 71%) Projection 0.94 (Yes)
The Ravens are projected to run 66.0 offensive plays in their upcoming game, ranking 3rd in the league, while Derrick Henry averaged 1.0 air yards per game, placing him in the 78th percentile among RBs; additionally, the New Orleans Saints allowed an 87.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs and the 6th-fewest rushing TDs at 0.71 per game, with their safeties ranking 10th-worst in covering pass-catchers last year.
AI Analysis
Lamar Jackson u228.5 Passing Yards (55%) Projection 222.09 (Under)
The Baltimore Ravens are 8.5-point favorites this week, expected to have a 50.2% pass rate, call the 3rd-fewest plays since last season, and Lamar Jackson is projected to throw 30.6 passes, while opposing quarterbacks averaged 28.3 attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints last year.
AI Analysis
Derrick Henry o88.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 96.46 (Over)
The Ravens are 8.5-point favorites this week and are expected to run 49.9% of the time, calling 66.5 offensive plays, while Derrick Henry is projected for 22 carries, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs with 93.0 adjusted yards per game.
AI Analysis
Durham Smythe Score a Touchdown (Yes: 11%)
Durham Smythe may have increased opportunities due to injuries in the Baltimore pass-catcher roster, having played 62% of snaps in Week 1 with one red zone target and potential for additional routes.
AI Analysis
Tyler Shough o11.5 Rushing Yards (52%)
Tyler Shough recorded four rushing attempts for eight yards in Week 1 and faces a challenging matchup against a Ravens defense known for their blitzing.
AI Analysis
Tyler Shough u21.5 Passing Completions (52%)
Tyler Shough completed 35 of 56 passes, exceeding his 21.5 pass-completion prop against Detroit, while facing a Ravens defense capable of applying pressure without heavy blitzing.
AI Analysis
Derrick Henry o0.5 Score 2+ Touchdowns
Henry scored three touchdowns against the Colts last week, Gibbs scored twice against the Saints, and the Ravens may rely more on Henry due to potential absences of wide receivers, including Zay Flowers.
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