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5:40 PM
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Model Picks
8Team Leaders
Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Mets
AI Analysis
Robert Stock u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+122) Projection 3.46
Robert Stock has averaged -12.6 fewer adjusted pitches per game compared to the average starter since last season, while PNC Park ranks #26 for strikeouts and is 724 feet above sea level, contributing to higher offensive output, with today’s projected humidity at 75%, the second-highest among all games.
AI Analysis
Robert Stock u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-165) Projection 3.35
Robert Stock has had a shorter average pitch count than typical starters, with -12.6 adjusted pitches per game since last season, while PNC Park ranks 26th for strikeouts and has the 6th-highest altitude among major league stadiums, contributing to potentially higher offensive output, and today's weather is projected to be 75% humidity, the second highest of all games.
AI Analysis
Robert Stock u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+119) Projection 3.47
Since the start of last season, Robert Stock has recorded -12.6 fewer adjusted pitches per game than the average starter, while PNC Park ranks #26 for strikeouts and is 724 feet above sea level, which generally leads to higher offensive output.
AI Analysis
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+125) Projection 1.83
Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile for offensive ability and is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup, with today's forecast predicting high humidity at 75%.
AI Analysis
Endy Rodriguez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-102) Projection 2.42
Endy Rodriguez is projected to bat 4th in a matchup with high humidity at 75% and will have the advantage of hitting as a switch-hitter against pitcher Robert Stock, while also benefiting from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Marcus Semien o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+121) Projection 1.83
PNC Park is built 724 feet above sea level, making it the 6th-highest major league stadium, and is projected to have 75% humidity today.
AI Analysis
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-140) Projection 2.77
Brandon Lowe is projected in the 89th percentile for home run talent, batting second today with a matchup against Robert Stock, who has a significant platoon split, in 75% humidity, benefiting from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Jacob Gonzalez o1.5 Total Bases (+202) Projection 1.36
High humidity at 75% today may increase offensive performance, while Jacob Gonzalez benefits from the platoon advantage against Robert Stock, who has a significant platoon split, along with a home field advantage that generally enhances hitter statistics.
AI Analysis
Ronny Simon o1.5 Total Bases (+197) Projection 1.39
High humidity is associated with increased offense and fewer strikeouts, with today's game projected at 75% humidity, and Ronny Simon is expected to benefit from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Endy Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+133) Projection 1.72
Endy Rodriguez, projected to bat 4th against pitcher Robert Stock, has consistently hit in the back-half of the batting order this season, while today's game is expected to have high humidity at 75% and he will benefit from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+112) Projection 2
Brandon Lowe is projected in the 89th percentile for home run talent, batting 2nd today in high humidity conditions at 75%, facing Robert Stock with a handedness advantage and home field advantage, with odds of +115 at Fanatics Sportsbook.
AI Analysis
A.J. Ewing o1.5 Total Bases (+132) Projection 1.68
A.J. Ewing is projected as the 7th-best hitter by THE BAT X, is batting 1st in the lineup, plays at PNC Park which is 724 feet above sea level, and will face Bubba Chandler with a platoon advantage in highly humid conditions of 75% today.
AI Analysis
Endy Rodriguez o0.5 Total RBIs (+186) Projection 0.74
Endy Rodriguez is projected to bat 4th in today's matchup, where he benefits from high humidity, home field advantage, and a notable increase in exit velocity on flyballs.
AI Analysis
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+123) Projection 2.01
Brandon Lowe is projected in the 89th percentile for home run talent, batting 2nd today in high humidity conditions at 75%, holds a handedness advantage against Robert Stock who has a large platoon split, and benefits from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+134) Projection 1.82
Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup with a 97th percentile BABIP skill, plays at PNC Park which has a high altitude conducive to offense, and faces a pitcher with a significant platoon split while benefiting from high humidity conditions today.
AI Analysis
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+190) Projection 0.74
Bryan Reynolds is projected to have a BABIP skill in the 97th percentile, bat 3rd in the lineup, and play at PNC Park which has a high altitude that typically enhances offensive output, while facing pitcher Robert Stock with a significant platoon split and in humid conditions projected at 75%.
AI Analysis
Jorge Polanco o1.5 Total Bases (+185) Projection 1.44
High humidity at 75% today may boost offense, and Jorge Polanco, a switch-hitter with a stronger left side, faces Bubba Chandler, despite having a .200 wOBA compared to his estimated .319 talent level, while ranking in the 81st percentile for Expected Home Runs and the 89th percentile for Isolated Power since last season.
AI Analysis
Spencer Horwitz o1.5 Total Bases (+142) Projection 1.73
Spencer Horwitz is projected in the 86th percentile for offensive talent, batting 5th in today's game at PNC Park, which has the 6th-highest altitude in MLB, while the weather report indicates 75% humidity and he has an advantage against Robert Stock's large platoon split.
AI Analysis
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+122) Projection 1.83
Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile for offensive ability and is projected to bat 2nd in today's lineup, with weather conditions expected to be 75% humidity, while his recent launch angle is 28.8° compared to a 17.4° seasonal average and he has a .315 wOBA against a projected true talent level of .351.
AI Analysis
Endy Rodriguez o0.5 Total RBIs (+179) Projection 0.74
Endy Rodriguez, projected to bat 4th in today's matchup, has consistently hit in the back-half of the batting order this season, faces high humidity at 75%, enjoys a platoon advantage against pitcher Robert Stock as a switch-hitter, benefits from home field advantage, and has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs from 91.4 mph to 98.7 mph in the last two weeks.
AI Analysis
Robert Stock u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+106) Projection 3.47
Robert Stock is projected to throw 82 pitches in his matchup at PNC Park, which is ranked #26 for strikeouts, located at an altitude of 724 feet, with high humidity conditions projected at 75%, and faces a Pirates lineup with 7 batters benefiting from a handedness advantage.
AI Analysis
Spencer Horwitz o0.5 Total RBIs (+175) Projection 0.67
Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 5th in today's game and ranks in the 86th percentile for offensive talent, benefiting from PNC Park's high altitude and humid conditions, while facing Robert Stock, against whom he has a significant platoon split advantage.
AI Analysis
Marcus Semien o1.5 Total Bases (+196) Projection 1.43
PNC Park, at 724 feet above sea level, ranks as the 6th-highest major league stadium, and Marcus Semien's recent launch angle of 43.3° is notably higher than his seasonal average of 18.5°, with projections indicating his true offensive skill to be .315 compared to his actual .269 wOBA.
AI Analysis
Spencer Horwitz o0.5 Total RBIs (+178) Projection 0.67
Spencer Horwitz is projected to be in the 86th percentile for offensive talent and is expected to bat 5th in today's game at PNC Park, which has the 6th-highest altitude among major league stadiums, providing a home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+120) Projection 1.83
Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile for offensive ability according to THE BAT X, is projected to bat 2nd, has a recent launch angle of 28.8° compared to a seasonal average of 17.4°, and has a .315 wOBA despite an estimated true talent level of .351, while posting a .345 Expected wOBA since last season, ranking in the 80th percentile for hitting ability.
AI Analysis
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+200) Projection 1.35
Francisco Alvarez is projected in the 91st percentile for home run skill with improvements in Barrel% from 16.9% to 26.7%, exit velocity from 90.2 mph to 92.2 mph, and a rise in optimal launch angle hits from 16.3% to 60%, averaging 25.1 home runs per 600 plate appearances at the 75th percentile for power.
AI Analysis
Luis Robert Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+150) Projection 1.56
Luis Robert Jr. ranks in the 81st percentile for home run skill, is projected to bat 5th in today's game, has improved his Barrel% from 3.3% to 20% in the last week, and has a wOBA of .265 compared to an estimated true talent level of .323 according to THE BAT X.
AI Analysis
A.J. Ewing o1.5 Total Bases (+140) Projection 1.68
A.J. Ewing is projected as the 7th-best hitter by THE BAT X, will bat 1st in today's game, has the platoon advantage against Bubba Chandler, and has seen his Barrel% rise to 23.5% in the last 7 days while playing at PNC Park, which is at a high altitude conducive to offensive output.
AI Analysis
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+138) Projection 1.83
Bryan Reynolds is projected to have a 97th percentile BABIP skill, bat 3rd in the lineup, and benefit from home field advantage at PNC Park, which is 724 feet above sea level.
AI Analysis
Brett Baty o1.5 Total Bases (+200) Projection 1.35
PNC Park, built 724 feet above sea level, has the 6th-highest altitude among major league stadiums, while Brett Baty's launch angle this year is 11.8°, higher than last season's 5.7°, and he has a .276 wOBA despite an estimated true talent level of .304, with a .274 Expected Batting Average ranking him in the 81st percentile per Statcast data.
AI Analysis
Endy Rodriguez u1.5 Total Bases (-156) Projection 0.96
Endy Rodriguez is batting 7th in today's lineup, while PNC Park ranks as the 3rd-worst stadium for left-handed home runs and has the 6th-highest average fence height and 7th-deepest fences, with Rodriguez's Barrel% declining from 11.4% to 5.6% over the last 14 days.
AI Analysis
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+129) Projection 1.83
Bryan Reynolds is projected in the 97th percentile for BABIP by THE BAT X, will bat 3rd in the lineup, and benefits from PNC Park's high altitude and his switch-hitting advantage against pitcher Robert Stock.
AI Analysis
Spencer Horwitz o1.5 Total Bases (+151) Projection 1.73
Spencer Horwitz is projected in the 86th percentile for offensive talent, will bat 5th in today's game at PNC Park, which has the 6th-highest altitude among major league stadiums, and will have an advantage against Robert Stock due to his platoon split.
AI Analysis
Esmerlyn Valdez o1.5 Total Bases (+183) Projection 1.62
Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 96th percentile for home run ability and is 4th in the lineup today, with a .398 wOBA in the 97th percentile and a .497 ISO in the 99th percentile, benefiting from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Luis Robert Jr. u1.5 Total Bases (-190) Projection 0.95
PNC Park is the #3 stadium in the majors for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters and features the 6th-highest average fence height and the 7th-deepest fences, while Bubba Chandler benefits from the platoon advantage against Luis Robert Jr., who faces a disadvantage playing on the road.
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