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Jul 31, 2026
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5:10 PM
Pittsburgh
Pirates · Away
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Model Picks
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Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
AI Analysis
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+131) Projection 2.08
Brandon Lowe, ranked in the 89th percentile for home run talent, is projected to bat 2nd in a game with a forecasted temperature of 88°, which is expected to enhance offensive performance, and he has an advantage hitting against Hunter Greene while pulling 39.2% of his flyballs towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences.
AI Analysis
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+132) Projection 1.84
Bryan Reynolds is projected in the 97th percentile for BABIP talent, batting 3rd today against Hunter Greene in 88°F conditions while holding an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs, suitable for the park's short left field fences.
AI Analysis
Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500) Projection 0.21
Ryan O'Hearn ranks in the 83rd percentile for offensive skill according to THE BAT X and is projected to bat 5th today in hot weather at 88°, giving him an advantage as he faces Hunter Greene.
AI Analysis
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total Home Runs (+349) Projection 0.29
Brandon Lowe ranks in the 89th percentile for home run talent according to THE BAT X projection system, is projected to bat 2nd, and will benefit from hot weather at 88°, an advantageous matchup against Hunter Greene, while pulling 39.2% of his flyballs towards MLB's 8th-shallowest right field fences.
AI Analysis
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+130) Projection 1.72
Sal Stewart is projected in the 92nd percentile for overall offensive skill, batting 2nd in today's game with favorable weather conditions of 88°, a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs, and home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+180) Projection 0.71
Brandon Lowe ranks in the 89th percentile for home run talent, is projected to bat 2nd, benefits from hot weather expected at 88°, has a favorable matchup against Hunter Greene, pulls 39.2% of his flyballs toward MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences, and is listed at +190 at Novig.
AI Analysis
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+137) Projection 1.72
Sal Stewart is projected in the 92nd percentile for offensive skill, batting 2nd in today's game with hot weather conditions at 88°F, a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs, and home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Total RBIs (+201) Projection 0.63
Ryan O'Hearn is projected at the 86th percentile for batting average, is slated to bat 5th in a game with a temperature of 88°, has an edge against Hunter Greene, possesses an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs (35.1%), and will be hitting toward MLB's 8th-shallowest left field fences.
AI Analysis
Noelvi Marte o1.5 Total Bases (+211) Projection 1.32
THE BAT X projects Noelvi Marte in the 79th percentile for batting average ability, while Great American Ball Park is ranked as the 3rd-best park for right-handed home runs and has the 7th-shallowest left field fences in MLB, with today's game expected to have a temperature of 88°, correlating with increased offense, and Marte benefiting from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Noelvi Marte o1.5 Total Bases (+230) Projection 1.39
THE BAT X projects Noelvi Marte in the 79th percentile for batting average, Great American Ball Park ranks as the 3rd-best park for right-handed home runs and has the 7th-shallowest left field fences in MLB, today's weather is expected to be 88°, the 3rd-hottest of the day, and home field advantage benefits hitter stats, with Marte available at +241 at DraftKings.
AI Analysis
Esmerlyn Valdez o1.5 Total Bases (+153) Projection 1.9
Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 96th percentile for home run ability according to THE BAT X, is projected to bat 4th in the lineup, and will play at Great American Ball Park, which is the 3rd-best park for right-handed home runs and has the 7th-shallowest left field fences, with today's weather forecast predicting a temperature of 88°.
AI Analysis
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+125) Projection 2.03
Brandon Lowe ranks in the 89th percentile for home run talent and is projected to bat 2nd in the order, while Great American Ball Park is the 3rd-ranked venue for lefty home runs, and today’s weather is expected to be 88°F, favoring offensive play.
AI Analysis
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+149) Projection 1.86
Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in MLB for BABIP talent, batting 1st in a matchup at Great American Ball Park, which is ranked 3rd for lefty home runs, in hot weather forecasted to reach 88°, while also having the advantage of batting from his stronger side against Paul Skenes.
AI Analysis
Jacob Gonzalez o1.5 Total Bases (+216) Projection 1.37
Great American Ball Park is the #3 MLB venue for lefty home runs, and with a projected temperature of 88°, Jacob Gonzalez has a handedness advantage over Hunter Greene, pulling 33.8% of his flyballs and recently increasing his launch angle to 32.5°.
AI Analysis
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+127) Projection 1.84
Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup with a BABIP talent in the 97th percentile, facing Hunter Greene at Great American Ball Park, which is the #3 venue for lefty home runs, under expected hot weather conditions of 88°.
AI Analysis
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+152) Projection 1.83
Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in MLB for BABIP talent, batting 1st in the lineup at Great American Ball Park, which ranks 3rd for lefty home runs, in projected 88° weather.
AI Analysis
Paul Skenes u7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+106) Projection 7.22
Dan Bellino is likely to be the home plate umpire today, with the weather reaching 88°, which may increase offensive performance; additionally, Paul Skenes faces potential challenges due to decreased fastball velocity and performance effects from playing on the road.
AI Analysis
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+182) Projection 0.74
Brandon Lowe ranks in the 89th percentile for home run talent and is projected to bat 2nd in today's game at Great American Ball Park, which ranks as the 5th best stadium for offensive statistics, with the weather expected to reach 88°F.
AI Analysis
Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Total RBIs (+208) Projection 0.63
Ryan O'Hearn is projected in the 86th percentile for batting average, will bat 5th in the lineup, plays at Great American Ball Park, which boosts offensive stats, and is facing favorable weather conditions with a projected temperature of 88°.
AI Analysis
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+170) Projection 0.74
Brandon Lowe ranks in the 89th percentile for home run talent, is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup, and is playing at Great American Ball Park, the 3rd-best venue for lefty home runs, with today's temperature expected to be 88°, benefiting offensive performance.
AI Analysis
Paul Skenes u7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+113) Projection 7.22
Dan Bellino is expected to officiate the strike zone today, with weather forecasted at 88°, which is correlated with increased offensive performance and fewer strikeouts; Paul Skenes's performance may be impacted by the road disadvantage, as his fastball velocity has decreased to 96.2 mph this year and his spin rate ranks in the 17th percentile among starting pitchers.
AI Analysis
Hunter Greene u7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135) Projection 6.35
Dan Bellino is expected to umpire today, with hot weather forecasted at 86°, which usually correlates with increased offense; Hunter Greene's fastball velocity has decreased to 97.7 mph this season and he has introduced a sinker used on 6.3% of his pitches, while his K/9 ratio suggests he may be overperforming.
AI Analysis
Henry Davis o1.5 Total Bases (+178) Projection 1.48
Great American Ball Park ranks as the #5 MLB stadium for offensive stats, with today's weather projected at 88°F, and Henry Davis, known for pulling fly balls and recently improving his exit velocity to 93 mph, has a .048 gap between his actual wOBA of .267 and the estimated .315 talent level.
AI Analysis
Henry Davis o1.5 Total Bases (+199) Projection 1.5
The leading projection system ranks Great American Ball Park as the 3rd-best for right-handed home runs, with today's weather expected to be 86°F, and Henry Davis, who has improved his exit velocity to 93 mph, is projected to benefit from the shallow left field fences despite his current low wOBA of .267 compared to an estimated true talent level of .315.
AI Analysis
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+135) Projection 1.86
Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in MLB based on BABIP talent, batting 1st in lineup at Great American Ball Park, which ranks 3rd for lefty home runs, while today's weather is projected to reach 88°, the 3rd-hottest of the games.
AI Analysis
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+136) Projection 1.84
Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in MLB based on BABIP talent, is expected to bat 1st in the lineup, and Great American Ball Park ranks 3rd for lefty home runs, with today's weather projected at 86°, which is favorable for offensive performance.
AI Analysis
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+130) Projection 1.84
Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in MLB based on BABIP talent, is expected to bat 1st in the lineup, and will have an advantage facing Paul Skenes as a switch-hitter at Great American Ball Park, which is ranked #3 for lefty home runs, with game conditions forecasted to be hot at 86°.
AI Analysis
Ryan O'Hearn o1.5 Total Bases (+156) Projection 1.82
Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 5th in the lineup and is in the 86th percentile for batting average, while Great American Ball Park ranks as the #3 venue in MLB for lefty home runs, with today's weather expected to be 86°, the hottest of the slate.
AI Analysis
Matt McLain o1.5 Total Bases (+281) Projection 1.19
THE BAT X projects Matt McLain in the 77th percentile for home run talent, while Great American Ball Park is rated as the 3rd-best park for right-handed home runs, with today's weather forecast predicting an 86° temperature, the 3rd-hottest of the games, and McLain's 87th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs (34.9%) is enhanced by playing at the game's 8th-shallowest right-field fences, also benefiting from home field advantage with odds of +279 at DraftKings.
AI Analysis
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+140) Projection 1.71
Sal Stewart is projected to be in the 92nd percentile offensively, batting 2nd today, while Great American Ball Park ranks as the 3rd-best venue for right-handed home runs, under conditions expected to be 86°F, and he has a 94th percentile opposite-field flyball rate of 36.5%, targeting the 8th-shallowest right field fences.
AI Analysis
Hunter Greene u7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-165) Projection 6.35
Dan Bellino is likely to be the home plate umpire today as the weather forecast predicts the hottest game temperatures at 86°, which usually correlates with increased offense; Hunter Greene's fastball velocity has decreased to 97.7 mph, and he has introduced a new sinker pitch this season, while his strikeout rate suggests he may have been fortunate in that aspect.
AI Analysis
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+163) Projection 1.84
Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best MLB hitter in BABIP talent and will bat first in a matchup at Great American Ball Park, which ranks 3rd for lefty home runs, while today's weather is forecasted to be the 3rd-hottest at 86°F, providing favorable conditions for offense.
AI Analysis
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+130) Projection 2.05
Brandon Lowe ranks in the 89th percentile for home run talent and is projected to bat 2nd in today's game at Great American Ball Park, which is ranked as the #3 venue for lefty home runs, with the weather expected to reach 86°.
AI Analysis
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+184) Projection 1.45
Eugenio Suarez is projected in the 97th percentile for home run talent by THE BAT X, is batting 4th in the lineup today, and is playing at Great American Ball Park, which ranks 3rd for right-handed home runs, with today's temperature expected to reach 86°, the 3rd hottest among games.
AI Analysis
Marcell Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases (+178) Projection 1.61
Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 88th percentile for home run talent according to THE BAT X and has a launch angle of 19° this season, a notable increase from 14.6° last year, while Great American Ball Park is the 3rd-best park for right-handed home runs and has the 7th-shallowest left field fences in MLB, with today's weather expected to be 86°, the 3rd-hottest of the games.
AI Analysis
Marcell Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases (+175) Projection 1.63
Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 88th percentile for home run talent according to THE BAT X, while Great American Ball Park is the 3rd-best park for right-handed home runs and has the 7th-shallowest left field fences in MLB; today's game is projected to be at 86°F, the 3rd-hottest on the slate, and Ozuna's launch angle has increased to 19° this season from 14.6° last year.
AI Analysis
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+147) Projection 1.83
Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in MLB based on his BABIP talent and will bat 1st in a matchup at Great American Ball Park, which ranks #3 for lefty home runs, while the weather is expected to be 86°, the 3rd-hottest of the day, providing an advantage for his performance against Paul Skenes.
AI Analysis
JJ Bleday o1.5 Total Bases (+161) Projection 1.66
JJ Bleday is batting 3rd in a matchup at Great American Ball Park, which is favorable for left-handed home runs, and today's weather is projected to be 85°.
AI Analysis
Jacob Gonzalez o1.5 Total Bases (+218) Projection 1.38
Great American Ball Park is the #3 MLB venue for lefty home runs, with a projected temperature of 85°F today, and Jacob Gonzalez holds the handedness advantage over Hunter Greene while facing a team with the 4th-worst outfield defense.
AI Analysis
JJ Bleday o1.5 Total Bases (+173) Projection 1.66
JJ Bleday is batting 3rd in today's matchup at Great American Ball Park, which is favorable for left-handed home runs, and he will benefit from hot weather and the dimensions favoring his flyball tendency.
AI Analysis
Noelvi Marte o1.5 Total Bases (+228) Projection 1.32
Noelvi Marte is projected in the 79th percentile for batting average by THE BAT X, while Great American Ball Park is ranked as the 3rd-best stadium for right-handed home runs and has the 7th-shallowest left field fences in MLB; today's weather is expected to be 85°, which is the 4th-hottest, potentially boosting offensive performance, and Marte benefits from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+228) Projection 1.38
Eugenio Suarez is projected in the 97th percentile for home run talent by THE BAT X, while Great American Ball Park is ranked 3rd for right-handed home runs, and today's weather forecast predicts the 4th-hottest temperature at 85°, enhancing offensive performance, along with Suarez's tendency to pull flyballs and the advantage of shallow left field fences.
AI Analysis
Esmerlyn Valdez o1.5 Total Bases (+155) Projection 1.91
Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 96th percentile for home run ability, is projected to bat 4th in the lineup, and is aided by favorable conditions including Great American Ball Park being ranked 3rd for right-handed home runs and hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences, with a weather forecast of 85°.
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