Trevor Story u0.5 Total Hits (+175) Projection 0.85

Fenway Park, located 16 feet above sea level, is among the lowest-elevation stadiums, which is associated with lower offensive performance, while today's matchup features a weather forecast of 57°—the 4th-lowest temperature—which could further depress offense and increase strikeouts, and Trevor Story faces a challenge batting against Michael King's throwing side and has a low launch angle of 7.6°, ranking in the 14th percentile since last season, alongside the San Diego Padres, who have the 3rd-best outfield defense today.

Jarren Duran o0.5 Total RBIs (+192) Projection 0.54

Jarren Duran has a projected BABIP talent in the 93rd percentile, is batting third today, and will have an advantage against Michael King at Fenway Park, which ranks as the 3rd best field for run-scoring with wind blowing out to center field at 10.4 mph.

Freddy Fermin u1.5 Total Bases (-241) Projection 0.74

The BAT X projects Freddy Fermin in the 18th percentile for offensive talent, he is batting 9th in the lineup today, and has been pinch-hit for 12% of the time when starting against right-handers since last season, while Fenway Park features the 2nd-highest fence height and one of the lowest elevations among stadiums.

Manny Machado o0.5 Total Home Runs

The San Diego Padres are facing Sonny Gray today, with Machado having a lifetime batting average of 12-for-35 against him, including three home runs.

Willson Contreras u1.5 Total Bases (-194) Projection 0.78

Fenway Park has the second-highest average fence height in Major League Baseball, and today's weather is expected to drop to 55°, the third-lowest temperature on the slate, which is associated with decreased offense and increased strikeouts, while Willson Contreras struggles with a 0% Barrel% and a -3.2° launch angle over the past two weeks.

Miguel Andujar u0.5 Total Hits (+192) Projection 0.92

Miguel Andujar is set to bat 6th in today's game, a decrease from his 67% rate of hitting in the top half of the lineup this season, while Fenway Park, at 16 feet above sea level, has one of the lowest elevations, which typically results in poorer offensive performance; the weather is expected to cool to 55°, contributing to decreased offense and increased strikeouts, and Sonny Gray will have the platoon advantage against Andujar, with the Boston Red Sox outfield defense ranked as the 2nd strongest among teams today.

Carlos Narvaez u1.5 Total Bases (-313) Projection 0.6

Carlos Narvaez is projected in the 22nd percentile for batting average and is set to bat 8th in a matchup at Fenway Park, which has the 2nd-highest fence height and is one of the lowest elevation stadiums, with projected temperatures dropping to 55°.

Wilyer Abreu u0.5 Total Hits (+153) Projection 0.78

Fenway Park, located 16 feet above sea level, has one of the lowest elevations among stadiums, contributing to lower offensive performance, while the temperature for today's matchup is projected to reach 55°, potentially leading to decreased offense and increased strikeouts, with Wilyer Abreu's .257 batting average exceeding the projected xBA of .230.