MLB picks
St. Louis
Cardinals · Away
San Diego
Padres · Home
Model Picks
1Team Leaders
San Diego Padres
St. Louis Cardinals
AI Analysis
Ivan Herrera u1.5 Total Bases (-189) Projection 0.9 (Under)
The weather report indicates the 4th-best pitching conditions, while Ivan Herrera faces challenges against Nick Pivetta and the San Diego Padres' strong outfield defense, with his flyball rate favoring the opposite field and away games generally lowering batter stats.
AI Analysis
Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+100) Projection 1.9 (Over)
Fernando Tatis Jr. is ranked as the 9th-best batter in the majors and is projected to hit 1st in the lineup, while playing at Petco Park, which ranks as the #6 ballpark for boosting home runs to right-handed batters and has the 6th-shortest fence height in MLB, providing him with a platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore.
AI Analysis
Matthew Liberatore o15.5 Outs Recorded (+120) Projection 16.1 (Over)
Petco Park is ranked #5 in the majors for suppressing BABIP, with the 4th-best pitching conditions today, while the St. Louis Cardinals infield defense is projected as the 4th-best; Matthew Liberatore has relied on off-speed and breaking pitches 61.2% of the time and has a 4.04 ERA compared to a 3.66 FIP, suggesting he is among the least fortunate pitchers this year.
AI Analysis
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+130) Projection 0.8 (Over)
Manny Machado is projected in the 96th percentile for batting average, batting 3rd in the order, with Petco Park ranked 6th for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters and having the 7th-shortest fence height in MLB, giving him an advantage against pitcher Matthew Liberatore, with odds of +160 at DraftKings.
AI Analysis
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Total RBIs (+160) Projection 0.6 (Over)
Jackson Merrill is projected in the 96th percentile for batting average and is expected to bat 4th in the lineup, while Petco Park ranks 6th for boosting home runs for left-handed hitters and has the 7th-shortest fence height in MLB; additionally, he faces a St. Louis Cardinals bullpen with only 1 same-handed relief pitcher.
AI Analysis
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+230) Projection 0.5 (Over)
Ivan Herrera is projected in the 87th percentile for batting average by THE BAT X, is batting 2nd in the order for this matchup, and plays at Petco Park, which ranks 6th in boosting home runs to right-handed hitters and has the 7th-shortest fence height in MLB, while his exit velocity on flyballs has increased to an average of 98.1 mph this season compared to 91.5 mph last year.
AI Analysis
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+175) Projection 0.6 (Over)
Fernando Tatis Jr. is ranked as the 9th-best batter in the majors by THE BAT X, projected to hit 1st in the lineup at Petco Park, which is the #6 ballpark for boosting home runs to righties and has the 7th-shortest fence height in MLB, while also having the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore.
AI Analysis
Willson Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+195) Projection 0.5 (Over)
Willson Contreras is projected in the 94th percentile for offensive skills by THE BAT X and is slated to bat 4th in the lineup, while Petco Park ranks as the 6th best ballpark for home runs to right-handed batters and has the 3rd-shallowest centerfield dimensions and the 7th-shortest fence height in MLB.
AI Analysis
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+280) Projection 0.5 (Over)
Ivan Herrera is projected in the 88th percentile for batting average, bats 2nd in the lineup, and has a .372 wOBA, placing him in the 92nd percentile, while Petco Park enhances home run potential for right-handed batters and has the 7th-shortest fence height in MLB.
AI Analysis
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+170) Projection 0.6 (Over)
Fernando Tatis Jr. is ranked as the 9th-best batter in the majors by THE BAT X, is projected to bat 1st, and benefits from the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore at Petco Park, the 6th-best ballpark for home runs to righties.
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